Study On Evaluation And Regulation Of Sustainable Energy Security In China

China is in a critical stage of industrialization and urbanization,and China's total energy demand will continue to grow.Ensuring a balance between energy supply and low carbon and sustainable development becomes the core issue of sustainable energy security." 13th FYP" is a critical period of China's energy and economy to achieve low-carbon transformation,to ensure adequate,clean energy supply is the fundamental basis to adapt to the new era and develop low-carbon economy.Therefore,in the context of China's energy supply-demand imbalance increasing,environmental constraints tightening,geopolitical risk rising,to carry out sustainable energy security evaluation and regulation research are very necessary both for the development of low-carbon economy and ensuring energy security.Based on the analysis of the current situation of China's energy security,this study aims to carry out China's sustainable energy security evaluation,research the issue of sustainable energy security regulation,and then put forward targeted policy recommendations for China's sustainable energy security management.(1)Analysis of China's energy securityChina's energy security situation during the period of 2005-2015 is analyzed from the perspective of energy supply security and energy use security with historical data analysis method.Energy supply security is analyzed mainly from energy reserves,energy supply and demand gap and energy price.Energy use security is analyzed mainly from the energy-environmental effects,energy-economic effects and low-carbon transformation and sustainable development of energy system.China's energy supply security is facing the growing gap between domestic supply and demand and the uncertainty caused by fluctuations in energy prices.China's energy use security is facing the serious environmental impact,the low efficiency of energy utilization and the weak ability of sustainable development of energy systems.(2)Evaluation on sustainable energy security and empirical analysis of ChinaFirstly,according to the meaning of sustainable energy security,five dimensions of sustainable energy security(availability,accessibility,affordability,acceptability and develop-ability)are proposed and 15 indicators are selected to construct a China's sustainable energy security evaluation index.Next,a comprehensive evaluation model is established using entropy weight TOPSIS method,and an empirical study of China's sustainable energy security with the data from 2005 to 2015 is carried out by the model.Then,the K-mean clustering method is used to classify the level of China's sustainable energy security,and the dynamic changing trend is analyzed accordingly.Finally,the gray relational analysis method is used to analyze the influence degree of each indicator on China's sustainable energy security.The results indicate that both China's sustainable energy security levels in the period of before and after 2010 present a downward trend first followed by an upward trend.During 2005-2015,China's energy security system had relative high scores in acceptability and develop-ability,while the sustained downward trend of availability is in need for more regulation.Carbon emission per unit energy consumption,energy consumption diversity and share of non-fossil energy are the three most influential factors to the China's sustainable energy security level.(3)Research on sustainable energy security regulation from the perspective of Renewable Portfolio Standard(RPS)Firstly,an evolutionary game model is established according to the game relationship between the government regulation authorities and the power generation enterprises with competing relations.The replicator dynamic equation of the game system are solved and multiple equilibrium solutions are obtained.Then,the simulation model of RPS regulation is established by system dynamics method,and the evolution stability of each equilibrium point is verified by simulating.It is found that there is no Evolutionary Stability Strategy(ESS)in the game system under the static penalty mechanism.Therefore,the penalty mechanism is improved into a dynamic penalty mechanism,which takes the mutual influence between the competing enterprises into account.Under the dynamic penalty mechanism,the simulation analysis of the new game system shows that the participants gradually converge to a stable state with the increase of the time and the number of games,and the game system has ESS.And the Jacobian matrix eigenvalue judgment method is used to verify the existence of ESS under the dynamic penalty mechanism theoretically,and the ESS is consistent with the system dynamics simulation results.Finally,the influence of several key variables on the evolutionary equilibrium is analyzed by system dynamics simulation.The results of the comprehensive evaluation of sustainable energy security and the findings of sustainable energy security regulation can provide theoretical reference and decision support for China's energy development strategy and the formulation of sustainable energy security regulatory policies.