The Study Of Leading Indicators Of Provincial Power Market Demand

Electric power is the pillar of national economy. The electric energy cannot be stored by itself, so it is of great practical significance to researching and forecasting on power demand. It can not only provide important reference for the operational planning of the relevant power sectors, but also can effectively prevent the electricity market environment from various risks. Through researching on the cyclical fluctuations of power demand, this thesis is aimed at building leading indicators forecasting system of power market demand and proving a reliable theoretical basis for the scientific investment and management of power sectors.Pointing to the specific circumstances of electric power demand in Chongqing, this thesis can conduct a preliminary screening on the relevant economic indicators of power demand in Chongqing based on the studies of experts from home and abroad. Co-integration relationship test and Granger Causality test are employed to select in 38 economic indicators. The alternative indicators are divided into three types, leading indicators, consistent indicators and lagging indicators, according to the indicators and benchmark cycle indicators-the leading relationship with electric power demand.After selecting the leading indicators and the advance phases, using the principal component analysis to synthesize leading composite index, this work forecasted and judged the overall volatility of electric power demand. As composite index cannot determine quantitative judgment, this thesis would use stepwise regression to forecast the electric power demand with the leading indicators and the advanced phases that have been selected, and test on the constructed regression model. The test results show that the model is predicting better, passing the R 2 test, F test and the autocorrelation test.By the analysis of the above methods, this paper constructed the leading composition index for provincial power market demand; so that it can warn the turning point of trends in advance, which can effectively prevent risks in the electricity market environment, and improve energy efficiency and smart power grid construction. What's more, it can provide a reliable reference for the decision-making of government or sector.