Research On Layout Panning Of Coastal Coal Reserve Bases

As the basic energy and important raw materials, coal consumption accounts for about 70% of the total energy consumption in China, so the effective supply of coal is an important foundation of protecting national security and ensuring the national economic sustainable development. Besides, the coastal is the strong regions of energy consumption and economic development, and as the engine of the coastal areas, the Bohai Rim, Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta are densely populated and rapidly developed. So, the stability of their energy supply is an important issue as it related to the economic sustainability. Moreover, coal demand has obvious "seasonal", which brings the coal transportation system great pressure, and furthermore, maritime transportation has a lot of force majeure, for example, once the interruption in maritime transportation is more than 5 days, this will pose a serious threat to coastal coal transportation. So, research on coastal coal strategic reserve is a very important subject for sustainable development. of maintain the coastal.In this paper, firstly, the effect factors of coal demand are analyzed. And in order to estimate the coastal coal consumption to provide theoretical basis for decision making of the coastal coal reserves scope, the prediction model of coal demand is established by the use of co-integration theory through the analysis on the national economy, population, industrial structure, energy structure, technological progress and other factors. Secondly,.by the using of related experience of the oil strategic reserve, the decision making method of coal strategic reserve scope based on VPRS is established to provide the reasonable concept and feasibility report for coastal coal reserves scope through the analysis of reserve cost, capacity of profitability and the factors affecting coal reserve scope. At last, According to coal properties and coal (power plant) geographic distribution, the principal and model based on FCM for coal base selection is fixed and established.In conclusion, through the clustering analysis of coastal coal port in china, this paper fixes 3 methods for sit selection and draws the conclusion that the coastal coal reserve function must be realized step by step. So, it provides the idea and method of layout planning and has certain referential value for coastal coal reserve in china.