Study Of The Choice Of Intermediate Target Of Monetary Policy In China

The whole dissertation is developed in accordance with the following proper order: the theoretical analyses of intermediate targets of monetary policy, the historical evolution of intermediate targets of monetary policy, and the study on validity of some related financial variables acting as intermediate targets.First, for the part of theoretical analyses, the author analyzes the properties and functions of intermediate target of monetary policy. Later on, the author makes a comparative study of some related theories coming from Keynesian school, Monetarism school and Post-Keynesian school. As for these theories, reasonableness exists in each school. Second, the author studies the history of intermediate targets of monetary policy of main western countries, and summarizes its general tendency and developing law, which, to sum up, are as follows: the choice of intermediate targets are closely related to the native economic developing surroundings, characteristics and financial situation; the more serious inflation becomes, the more attention is given to monetary aggregates as intermediate targets; with the stable relationship between monetary aggregates and variables as goals of central banks being damaged by financial innovation and some other reasons, most countries either give up or give less attention to monetary aggregates; the pluralism of intermediate targets ,the separation and dispersion of the function of traditional intermediate targets have become the worldwide fashion, from which China could gain a deal of enlightenment.The last, Considering there are no suitable economic variable which can replace money supply now, this paper deems central bank should improve the efficacy of money supply by adjusting the layers of money supply and ameliorating the institution environment . Interest rate liberalization and development of financial market should be implemented simultaneously, so interest rate can enter into intermediate target when interest rate is competent for intermediate target; This paper points out, although inflation target regime can't be carried out now in China, it has much research value and be a potential selection to intermediate target. We should reinforce the researches on inflation targeting regime.