Study On Railway Container Volume Forecasting System

The development of forecasting and computer technology are the foundation for forecasting railway container transport volume scientifically. Some existing mathematical software have certain forecasting function, but there are some problems such as the simple forecasting method, large data-entry workload, and unfriendly interface, which cannot meet the demand of rapid and accurate forecasting of railway container transport volume Therefore, developing railway container transport volume forecasting system is especially significant for improving container transport volume forecasting precision and efficiency, improving railway container transport organization decision-making level and improving the competitiveness for railway transport in container shipping market.The influence factors on railway container transport volume were analyzed firstly based on the social economic development level, railway operation and national policy and science and technology. After analyzing the features and application conditions of the time series forecasting methods, cause-and-effect analysis forecasting methods, modern forecasting methods and combinational forecasting methods, this paper established a forecasting model base for railway container transport volume, and also established the corresponding testing model base and model attributes base, which were applied respectively for the precision testing of forecasting models and suggestion providing to users to select forecasting models. Then this paper emphasized on overall designing of railway container transport volume forecasting system, including the system function design, the forecasting flow design, the data flow analysis and the data structure design, the model base design and the input and output design. Then, the detailed illustration about the key technology and programming ideas of realizing data management, model base management and transport volume forecasting were presented, which are the three core modules of the system. Lastly, by taking the total container transport volume forecasting of China Railway Container Transport co., Ltd for example, the realization of the system were introduced.