Time Variable,Income Uncertainty And Rural Residents Consumption Behavior In China

Consumption is one of the three major force to promote economic growth, it is an important endogenous variable in macroeconomic analysis and modern economic theory。Household consumption takes a larger proportion of total consumption, consequently, scholars'extensive attention has been caused, especially to urban residents'consumption behaviour, many studies has been made by scholars based on different perspectives, different theoretical framework。However, specialized and systematic analysis on rural residents consumption behavior is insufficient。At present, the situation of rural residents'consumption can not be optimistic, consumption demand continues to slump, high savings rate, lack of effective demand, the overall propensity to consume is low, consumption expectation becomes worsen, a huge gap in the overall spending power between urban and rural, etc; Meanwhile, as the market economic developing, long-term effected by the dual system, rural residents faced growing degree of uncertainty in income and payments。Traditional consumption theory no longer meet the current consumer conditions。Therefore, this article hopes to analyze consumer behaviour, wish to find new variables and their impact mechanism, in order to provide valuable information to promote consumption of rural residents。This paper is based on the theoretical and empirical analysis, using statistical methods and econometric models, from the microeconomics and macroeconomic aspects, we analyze process of the consumption structure of rural residents in China and consumption function under the conditions of uncertainty。Firstly, we observe the structure of household consumption and characteristics of the consumption items, by calculating a series of statistical indicators, we master the stage characteristics of consumption structure, and we divide the evolution progress of consumption structure and judge the direction of optimization and upgrading of consumption structure; Secondly, with econometrics models, we check and adjust the division made earlier; Finally, the paper analyse consumption behaviour with consumption function, which was derived under uncertainty condition。Under conditions of uncertainty we made analysis on how uncertainty impact on consumer behaviour。We found that consumption structure of rural residents continued to upgrade and presented stage characteristics。Basic living conditions of rural residents was satisfied, their demand for non-material consumption was increasing。However, the consumption upgrade slowdown, the path became blocked。As the market economic developing, long-term effected by the dual system, uncertainty became an important variable impacting rural residents'consumption。Further more, We found that uncertainty does have a negative impact on residents'consumption。Which generate "prudent" motivation, residents will reduce current consumption。Meanwhile, in this paper, we will explain the excessive sensitivity and excessive smoothness in the light of ECM function。...