The Research On The Real Estate Bubbles Of Shanghai

The financial crisis started from august 2007 in the United States, which not only make the American financial system ramshackle also let the word economy facing a huge pressure. It is still the international concerns. And all this because the housing policy released by America government, which caused the subprime crisis. Then, China's real estate market also showed the volume tumbled and the price hovering, which is the similar features with subprime crisis in American. Is it the sign of "Chinese edition of the subprime crisis"? Is there bubble in the China's real estate market? How to test and measure the estate bubble? It makes people pay more attention to China's real estate market.As the backbone industries of national economy, the real estate is not only an important source of national capital accumulation, and its development also drives the development of other related industries, which also most easily produce the bubbles of the industry. Once the real estate bubble burst, it will cause the great destruction to the development of real estate and the entire national economy. It not only can cause the imbalance of economic structure and the social structure production, the crisis of production and consumption, but also become a financial crisis which will be harmful for the whole world of global economic. Therefore, the paper tries to research on the Shanghai real estate, which is the most representative city of China. It will not only contributed to the development of the research on the real estate bubble theory, and also provide the government very good advice to formulate appropriate marcroeconomic policies.The methods in the paper is the combination of the qualitative with quantitative. And we also use the theory method and comparison and induction, and the latter is mainly for review the domestic and foreign literatures. The method and model mainly include unit root test, cointegration test and variable parameter state space model when we reasearch whether there exist bubbles of Shanghai real estate market. At the end of the empirical study about the measure of the real estate bubble, the paper use the method of Synthetic index method, which include the factor analysis using for the comprehensive index.The paper is divided into six parts:the first part is preface, which mainly discusses the background, significance aand contents and research framework. The second part of the paper began with the connotation of bubble, then discusse the definition of bubbles and the real estate bubbles, and presentation the related literature review of the real estate bubble at home and abroad. The third part is the literature review about the existence test and the measure method over the real estate bubbles.The fourth part is using the variable parameter state space model to estimate the basic value of real estate in Shanghai, and judge whther there exist bubbles through the offset between the actual prices and the basic value of Shanghai real estate.The fifth part is the use of Synthetic index method of measuring real estate bubble in Shanghai. Last part is the summary of the paper.The innovation of the paper is using the variable parameter state space model as the new statistics method. The advantage of the method is that it can put the unobservable variables, the state variables, into the observable model, and get the estimated result. The other advantage is that it used Kalman filter which is powerful iterative algorithm to estimate. Only if we get a comparatively accurate estimate on the basic value and then do the existance test of the real eatate bubbles in Shanghai can we obtain the most accurate results.We use the Synthetic index method to measure the real estate bubbles. It is based on the reasearch of a series of index and comrehensive and then we get the measure of the real estate market bubble in Shanghai. The reasearchers often use the Delphi method or the Experts method to determine the indexes weights when they are using the Synthetic index method. But these two methods have strong subjectivity. Therefore, the paper attempts to use the factor analysis method, the most scientific methods, to determine the indexes weights.Based on the empirical study of Shanghai real estate market, we thought that the migration between the actual price and the basic value is nonstationarity, which means that there was really exist certain bubbles. We found that there are a certain degree of bubbles about the year of 2004 and 2009 through using the Synthetic index method to measure the bubbles, which is consistent with the reality situation of Shanghai real estate market. So we think there is a realistic basis on the research of Shanghai real estate bubbles.But there still exists some deficiencies in the paper. Although we did the existence test and masure to the bubbles, we couldn't define the critical values of bubbles yet. We just get the trend of the real estate bubbles in Shanghai. We could not judge the bubble degree. And we didn't analyze the reason of real estate market bubbles. So it is difficult to underestand the whole real estate market, which required us and the researchers to make furture efforts.