| Trade between countries, now depends mainly on maritime transport. A ship calling any port, must have a local shipping agent to provide such services as stevedoring arrangements, crew medical treatment, supply, import and export formalities, etc. In the past, there is only one agency company in Tianjin market---China Ocean Shipping Agency, Tianjin(PENAVICO TIANJIN). With the prosperity of foreign trade in China and the entrance of WTO, the government has been opening the agency market gradually. A lot of agency companies have been established in Tianjin and made market competition increasingly fierce. How could PENAVICO TIANJIN stand firmly under the circumstance of great opportunities and huge challenges? How could she keep her position of the biggest market sharer? These are significant problems worth deep thoughts by every PENAVICO manager.In this paper, Tianjin Port Container Throughput Forecast is made by using the combination forecasting model based on inverse variance method. Together with three forecasting methods as the linear regression method, Brown single parameter linear exponential smoothing and trend extrapolation of growth curve, the consequences are good and quite parallel. Because PENAVICO TIANJIN plays an important role in Tianjin Port container business, this article based on Tianjin Port container throughput forecast, reaches a forecast of PENAVICO's container volume through the analysis of her proportion and its changes in the past years. At the same time, exponential curve extrapolation leads to the numbers of calling vessels at Tianjin Port for the next three years; then, according to the proportion of PENAVICO TIANJIN occupied, her ship volume comes out which is followed by a further analysis.Through the above prediction and analysis, this article comes to a series of clear judgments for PENAVICO TIANJIN's business development situation and provide her with an objective basis on the development strategy proposal for the new period. |
