Empirical Study On The Sustainability And Stability Of Jiangsu Economic Growth

Since the reform and opening up, Jiangsu as an important coastal province seized the historical opportunity for development and came to the fore in numerious provinces of China. Jiangsu has achieved the rapid economic growth, but at the same time, there are still some serious contradictions and problems in the development process. Such as the shortage of energy, the environmental pollution and the strong impact to the economic growth of Jiangsu province brought by the 2008 international financial crisis, and so on. If these problems are not properly solved, they will seriously threaten the sustainability and stability of Jiangsu economic growth. In this background, the paper puts"the sustainability and stability of Jiangsu economic growth"as the research topic. It has a very important and practical significance. The research content of the article is as follows: Based on the preliminary analysis of the sustainability and stability of Jiangsu economic growth, the main factors which affect the sustainability and stability of Jiangsu economic growth are chosen to have empirical studies in detail. On the sustainability of Jiangsu economic growth, this part contains two aspects. First, by using the gray relational analysis method, the paper analyzes the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Jiangsu province, to examine whether the rapid economic growth is depended on a lot of energy input or not. Second, by using the Environmental Kuznets Curve, the paper studies the relationship between environmental pollution and economic growth in Jiangsu, to examine whether environmental indicators are worsening with the rapid economic growth. On the stability of Jiangsu economic growth, considering that the 2008 international financial crisis is the most important reason which causes economic fluctuations of Jiangsu province at the present stage,the stability of this part only refers to the fluctuation which is made by the financial crisis. This part also contains two aspects. First, through the method which is a combination of the qualitative and quantitative, and the establishment of trend-stationary model, this paper analyzes economic fluctuations of Jiangsu province which is caused by the 2008 international financial crisis. Second, by using the methods such as the co-integration test, the granger causality test, the paper studies the influence of the 2008 international financial crisis to the export trade and import trade of Jiangsu province.On the basis of the above analysis and research, the paper gets the following important conclusions: First, the economic growth of Jiangsu province depends on energy consumption highly, and energy efficiency remains to be further improved. Second, during the period 2005~ 2006, some environmental indicators of Jiangsu province have changed in the opposite direction, such as industrial wastewater emissions, dust emissions, sulfur dioxide emissions. There is the trend that environmental issues will be improved. However, industrial solid waste emissions and industrial waste gas emissions have not been improved as yet, the economic growth of Jiangsu is accompanied with a gradual deterioration of some environmental indicators. Third, the international financial crisis is the main reason that leads to the economic fluctuations. The 2008 international financial crisis has brought a strong impact on the stability of Jiangsu economic growth. The paper predicts that the economic growth rate of Jiangsu may drop about 3 percentage points between 2007 and 2010, and a fundamental turn of the economic growth in Jiangsu perhaps appear in 2011.Fourth, the foreign trade of Jiangsu has been impacted seriously by the 2008 international financial crisis. In the short run, export-oriented economic growth mechanism has been broken by the 2008 international financial crisis. The economic growth mode which is over-reliance on export will increase the international economic risk and political risk, and thereby threaten the stability of economic growth. In the end of the article, the paper provides a number of suggestions how to maintain high-speed, stable sustainable economic growth.