The Studies On The System Dynamics Mechanism Of Formation Of Trust Risk In E-Commerce

The credit crisis of online trading has become increasingly prominent with the rapid development of e-commerce. The parties are dealing more difficult to build trust Because of information asymmetries and non-personalized features; Trust problem has become one of the bottlenecks impeding the development of e-commerce. The nature of credit problem is because of the expected trust risk. In order to effectively guard against e-commerce trust risk, we must understand its scientific meaning,analyze its influencing factors, research its formation mechanism. On this basis, this thesis introduces the system dynamics theory, use simulation methods, and study the e-commerce trust risk with systems thinking.Firstly, this thesis defines the basic concepts of trust risk in e- commerce, put forwards and explains the basic category that represents trust risk in e-business: perceived trust risk rate. Perceived trust risk rate is the possibility that online traders perceive to be deceived. The introduction of this category is a necessary condition of following system model.Then, combined with the principle of system dynamics, this thesis analyzes the trust risk in e- commerce system architecture, defines the system boundary. Integration of the many factors that affect the trust risk in e- commerce of technical factors, cultural factors, trading factors, market factors, personal factors and management factors in six categories, these six major categories makes up of the trust risk in e- commerce. On this basis, this thesis explains the applicability that studying the trust risk in e- commerce with system dynamics. System structure analysis has laid a theoretical foundation for following model.Further, this thesis uses systems thinking to analyze the feedback relationships between trust risk in e- commerce and its factors, establish the functional relations between variables, draw a system dynamics flow diagram, and build a system dynamics model of trust risk in e- commerce.Finally,this thesis simulate the uses model with the professional system dynamics software Vensim. Get the trend of Perceived trust risk rate in 100 transactions with transaction for the simulation unit. Test different parameters on the System Output by changing the parameters of personal factors and transaction factors, and make some instructive conclusions. The results show that e-commerce trust risk system has a significant cumulative effect, the system output for the personal experience of being cheated is most sensitive to changes, followed by turnover and individual defensive ability, the OTS changes in the least sensitive.