Research On Macro-economic Evaluation And Early Warning Based On Fuzzy And Compositive Methodology

30 years of reform and opening up, China has made great achievements in economic construction, Especially in recent years, GDP has maintained a rapid growth year after year. But there are also macroeconomic problems performed one way or another. Sub-prime mortgage crisis, which broke out at in the United States in 2007, triggered a worldwide economic recession. This has lead to our thinking on the stability of development of macroeconomic and to re-examine the current status of macroeconomic developments. Macroeconomic volatility is normal. The only way is to explore the macro-economic operation rules, looking for macro-economic assessment and early warning methods. So we can evalue and monitor the macroeconomic fluctuations and give some warnings. So as to provide the basis for national policy/measures'making in order to reduce the adverse effects of economic fluctuations on the economy. It is with this purpose that we carry on the research on China's macro-economic evaluation and warning.This paper is divided into six parts. The first part has summarized the history and present situation of evaluation and early warning on macroeconomic. Macro-economic evaluation and early warning research is an important area of economic research, which has a high theoretical and practical value. The second part has summarized the theory of economic cycle research, and has used the economic cycle theory to analyze the economic fluctuations in china. At the same time, we put up some views and opinion on the balanced development of economic theory. The third part outlines the macro-economic assessment and early warning methods, whereby the reader can have a more comprehensive understanding. The fourth part describes the basic idea of fuzzy mathematics, introduces the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, and proposed the thinking of application of fuzzy mathematics to evaluate and predict the macroeconomic. The fifth part selects a certain amount of index and determines the membership function of each index using the fuzzy and comprehensive evaluation methods to analyze the mutual relations of macroeconomic objectives and various factors classified in economic growth, employment growth, price stability, balance of international payments, the state revenue and expenditure of five aspects. The six part determines the weight of each index and constructs the evaluation system. At last we use economic data to test this evaluation system and we confirm that the index evaluation system can evaluate the economic trends and provide early warning of future economic development.The research methods we used in this paper include the combination of theoretical analysis and empirical research, the combination of qualitative and quantitative evaluation and other research methods. Specifically:(1) theoretical research methods. With the comprehensive use of the economic cycle theory, the balanced development of economic theory, investment theory, consumer theory, we clarify the impact of the factors on the macroeconomic and select some indicators to be used. (2) empirical research methods. On the collection of indicator data, we use the charts, graphs, formulas, and other means to analyze the relationship between economic objectives and indicators. After the establishment of index evaluation system, we use data to test it and confirm that the evaluation index system has the function of economy evaluation and the early warning. (3) qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. in the process of analysis of economic goals, we use qualitative analysis to analyze various the relationship between economic objectives and indicators,and use quantitative analysis to give data instructions.