Early Warning Monitor Research On Our Country's Economic Cycle

As we all know, the macroeconomic has periodic characteristic, going in a repeated cycle of prosperity, decline, depression, and recovery. So we can make necessary economic prediction based on the relevant data and economic performance. Macroeconomic early warning system works as an economic alarm which built by a series of economic indicators. It plays a role of monitoring and warning like alarm for two reasons:Firstly, macroeconomic exists cyclical fluctuations objectively; Secondly, some economic problems can be exposed or reflected by some indictors in the economic cycle. In order to meet the needs of macro-economic control, exploring business cycle rules provides the scientific basis for government, enterprises and other related departments to grasp the future economic operation situation and make strategy.Research for macro economic early warning system has be used and popular in the whole world, and plays a pivotal role in economic operation decision-making, but domestic and international economic warning methods, most are concentrated in the statistical field, the artificial neural network and math based on the maximum entropy. However the economic operation state is originally a fuzzy concept, the paper will combine with the existing research results of Chinese and foreign scholars, then use fuzzy mathematic theory to explore economic prosperity monitoring and fuzzy warning.Firstly, the paper reviews the development of economic monitor and early warning, compares different economic monitor methods. Then the paper adopts comprehensive fuzzy analysis in economic monitor and early warning and gives brief introduction of comprehensive fuzzy analysis as well as its advantages in economic monitor and early warning.Model construction of comprehensive fuzzy analysis is comprised of three parts:the first part chooses various factors that affects volatility of economic cycle and analyzes its influence mechanism on the basis of economic theory combined with the actual situation of China, then construct a warning system including 6 first-level indicators and 20 second-level indicators according to the filtering principle; the second part uses rise and fall semi-Trapezium Distribution to construct membership function after indicating boundaries values of warning indicators; the third part uses the AHP method to sort according to indicator's importance separately for the first-level indicators and the second-level indicators, then obtains weight of each indicator through computation.Finally the paper uses economic data since the year of 1990 to conduct empirical analysis of comprehensive fuzzy analysis and summarizes results. Then analyzes economic development of China since 1990 according to the degree of membership, and judges the possibility of changing trends in the near future, meanwhile this paper points out the problems in economic development of our country as well as its causes, including price, employment, foreign exchange reserves, central finance dependence, etc. The paper discovers many advantages of comprehensive fuzzy analysis in economic monitor and early warning.This method shows promising application prospect.