The Study Of Analysis And Prediction About Guangxi Modern Logistics Demand

Regional logistics demand forecast is an important link in regional logistics system planning and provides essential base data for making regional logistics developing policy, ascertaining logistics infrastructure construction scale and analyzing the logistics market trend. But, due to the development of China's logistics industry is still in the initial stage, the logistics demand forecast of the historical data required by Statistics is still not complete. Under the situation of the sampled data limited, how to choose the appropriate method to carry on the reasonable forecast to the region logistics demand will become a very important issue. With CAFTA developing and the Beibu-Bay Economic Zone advancing, the status of Guangxi as traffic hub and logistics channel will be more and more important. So it's necessary to analyze and forecast the logistics demand of Guangxi.This paper analyzes the development status of Guangxi Logistics. Guangxi basic economic conditions have been analyzed from total economic output, economic structure, economic position and other aspects. Logistics development situation and problems have been analyzed from transport infrastructure current situation and logistics enterprises status. Then the paper analyzes the development environment of the Logistics. It shows that logistics demand is need to predict.Using econometric models, the paper analyzes and forecasts the logistics demand of Guangxi. The paper analyzes Guangxi logistics demand economic impact factors which paves the way to use the econometric models later. The paper constructs an index system of logistics demand forecast, and selects freight, cargo turnover as quantitative indicator of logistics demand. It uses statistical software eviews to modeling and analysis. Guangxi, logistics requirements rapid growth trend can be seen in five years.The paper uses Gray system theory to predict Guangxi freight, freight turnover structure. It calculates the sharing rate of cargo and freight volume in 2000-2009 and creates a dynamic non-linear gray model. It uses matlab software to predict Guangxi railways, highways and waterways sharing rate in 2011-2015. On these bases, combining with the chapter III total logistics needs, it calculates the freight, freight turnover next five years. From forecast data analysis, we can see, in the next five years, the change each transport mode volume structure and turnover structural are not large, relatively stable. The sharing rate of cargo and freight volume would have increased in the future. The proportion of rail transport cargo, freight turnover has a slightly downward trend in the five years. The sharing rate of shipping cargo and freight turnover would have increased in the future. It can be seen that the burden rate of various transport modes is up or down and some transport structure has changed, but the total logistics needs is of the fast-growing trend.