The Analysis And Forecast On Composition Of Rural Logistics Demand In Henan Province

Rural logistics have an important impact on rural economic development, rural logistics demand forecasting by means of qualitative and quantitative analytical tools can help to understand the demand strength of supply capabilities during rural production and living process, can help guide social investment purposely put into rural areas, can help rationally plan and construct logistics infrastructure, which has an important significance on the development of rural logistics.Firstly this paper defines the concept of rural logistics, and analyzes the factors that affect rural logistics. Based on the above studies, demand forecast of rural logistics is carried out from three aspects:logistics demands of agricultural production, logistics demands of the agricultural products and logistics demands of consumer goods. To ensure the rational and scientific of index selection, the paper does a detailed discussion about logistics demand indicators. Then the paper forecasts logistics demand by Gray prediction model, and does empirical analysis of rural logistics in Henan Province. The paper does the demand forecasts according to Freight Volume of Chemical Fertilizers and Pesticides, Freight Volume of Grain, Freight Volume of Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery Products and Consumption of Major Goods in Rural Households in the past years, and then analyzes the development trends of rural logistics demand, explains why it will develop as the trends. Finally the paper provides promote the future development proposals of the rural logistics according to the forecast results.In addition, there are15figures and8tables in the dissertation. We also have referred to40reference documents.