Chinese Export Potential For Trade In Services

Today, trade in service is growing faster than merchandise trade, and the focus of the development and competition of global economic integration shifts from merchandise trade to trade in service. Trade in services has become an important part of international trade, occuped a pivotal position in a economy's economic activities,and has increasingly become tools for economy's industrial restructuring and strategic alternativing of pillar industry.In this paper,the potential for trade in services is an entry point,it is estimated that China's service trade exports potential to the world,and horizontally compare with major trading partners,followly,analysis trade in services export potential to US,Japan and EU.Finally,article will give the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.Innovation of this paper:(1)Broken traditional gravity model approach to estimate the trade potential,this article will modify the grabity model,estimated Chinese trade in services export potential,the research method is the innovation.(2)Combined with the status of Chinese service trade,and estimated Chinese export potential for volume and structure of trade in services to the world,the research perspective posses more practical significance.(3) Use the variable intercept panel data of trade in services from 2004 to 2008 to construct the gravity model,on the basis of estimating theoretical value of the trade in service exports,by comparing with the actual value,finally,calculate the volume and structure export potential to US,Japan and EU.The more refined estimationg for the potential could promot making macroeconomic policy for trade in services and the corporate determining marketing strategy more targeted.The key point is that the emerging trade in services sectors with strong ability to resist risks show export potential,and the traditional trade in services sectors with weak ability to resist risks show total export over,it reflects the structural imbalance in the development of trade in services.Now the main line to the point of view,the article is divided into five chapters.Chapter I:Introduction.Main topics of the paper describes the purpose and significance,review and evaluation of relevant literature,content frameworks,research methods,major innovation and shortage.Existing research literatures only analysis Chinese trade in service export potential to trade partners, and no sub-sector studies,this is the starting point of this article.ChaperⅡ:Development status of Chinese trade in service.The part respectively system overview the volume and strcture of trade in services,and from the perspective of volume and strcture,makes international comparisons.First,Describes the overall development status of chinese trade in services.Then,briefly overview trade in services sub-sectors.Finally,compare and analyze the current of trade in service of China with the major trading partners.ChapterⅢ:Estimation of trade in service export potential for China to the world,and international comparison.Using two-stage gravity model to estimate the potential of Chinese service trade export,and compared with major parterner,reach conclution that the volume of trade in services is over large,traditional sectors have full played the potential,such as tourism,construction services,however, emerging sectors especially the financial services still have a lot of space for export potential.Through horizontal comparison the volume and structure trade in service export potential between China and the United States,Japan,South Korea,conclud the common and personality traits among countries.Chapter IV:Estimation of trade in service export potential for China to partners-the United States,Japan and European Union as an example.Based on the variable intercept panel data model,ananlyzes factors affecting trade in services export and the volume and structure export potential for China to 29 enconomies.The basic conclusion of this chapter is:Distance has no significant effect on Chinese trade in service export.Through the international financial crisis,sharp decline in total trade in services exports is the continuance of insufficient export,the total export potential are increasing,but sectors export potential is complex;traditional sectors such as transport,tourism have weak ability to avoid risks,however,emerging sectors such as insurance has strong ability to avoid risks.Chapter V:The suggestions for taping Chinese trade in services export potential.For the conclution, proposes the countermeasures to explore Chinese trade in services export potential. Firstly,fully tap the export potential of "lack of trade"sectors; Secondly,focus on the sustainable development of "serious over-expot"sectors; Thirdly, deal with the relationship betweew "income"and "profit"; Fourthly, focus on developing the market to which lack of trade. Fifthly,break the traditional geographical distance space,expand the global export market.