Empirical Analysis Of Potential Export Volume Of Trade In Goods From China To EU

The EU is one of the important trade partners of China."The Belt and Road Initiatives" highlights the importance of the trade between EU and China. This paper would make a research about the potential export volume of trade in goods from China to EU. The research structure is as follows.Firstly, the paper has comprehensively analyzed the status of trade in goods from China to EU based on a series of special analysis. These analysis consist of the changes in EU-China trade volume, the trade volume from China to every member country of the EU, the industry structure of export from China to EU. Then the paper has discussed the impact of "the Belt and Road Initiatives" on the trade in goods from China to EU from four aspects, including the sea and land thoroughfare, trade facilitation, the expanding of trade fields and accounts settlement facilitation. Secondly, the paper has analyzed the impacting factors of trade in goods from China to EU by constructing extended gravity model, calculating the specific regression equations. With the regression equations and the number of all explanatory variables, we have got the theoretical export volume. Therefore, export potential has been calculated by the ratio of the theoretical export volume and the actual export volume. Finally, conclusions and policy recommendations have been proposed.The study has found that China and the EU has maintained close trade connection, which confirmed that China and the EU are important trade partners. However, there have been some problems about the trade in goods from China to EU in recent years, such as the unstable growth trend, the unbalanced national structure of export, the high export industry concentration and the trade friction. These problems may have important influence on trade in goods from China to EU.The empirical results have shown that there has been big export potential for the trade in goods from China to EU,whether from the view of the EU or from the view of the EU members. But there also has been "excessive export" situation for a few EU members. We should pay much attention to the reason why export potential from China to EU has not yet been fully excavated in order to seek effective solutions. On the one hand, we should find the reason from the export industry structure and the trade friction based on the literal and numerical analysis on trade status between China and the EU; on the other hand, as macroeconomic factor, the economic and trade cooperation may have important effect on the trade in goods from China to EU. Presently, China and the EU have not made substantial progress in economic and trade cooperation. China has not yet signed bilateral investment agreements and free trade agreements with the EU. In addition, China has not signed bilateral investment agreements and free trade agreements with any country of the EU members. All the above factors have important influence on the expanding of export scales from China toEU.According to the findings and conclusions, the paper has proposed several policy recommendations in order to make the export potential from China to the EU become reality. The policy recommendations include ensuring the supplying of export products, promoting the signing of Free Trade Agreement and investment agreement between China and the EU, attracting foreign direct investment from the EU members to China and strengthening the land and sea infrastructure constructions along "the Belt and Road "areas.