| As an important part of international trade,service trade is playing a more and more important role.At present,researches on international trade in services mainly focuse on the measurement of international competitiveness and the factors affecting the international competitiveness.With the improvement of the technology and the added value of products in the international trade competition,it has become a common view to measure the trade structure of a country or region with the technology complexity.A group of scholars,represented by Rodrik,think that the complexity of China’s export technology has been close to the level of developed countries,and the path of change does not conform to the "regular path",which has aroused widespread debate and suspicion in the academic circles.In order to explore the change of technology structure of China’s service trade,clarify the way to improve the technology complexity of China’s trade in services,validate the existence of "Rodrik paradox" in China’s service trade,this paper,based on the "Rodrik paradox",calculates the export technology complexity of 43 sample countries in 2000-2016 years and makes a horizontal and vertical comparison between countries.First of all,this paper selects export sophistication index designed by Hausmann(2007)to measure the complexity of export technology in service trade,from the service departmentsl and nationl,we finds: the complexity of export technology in all kinds of service departments presents a certain volatility,but as a whole,the trend is to keep growing;the technical level of the export of traditional service trade is more obvious;there is still a big gap between the advanced countries and the developed countries in the world,so there is no "Rodrik paradox".Secondly,comparing China’s export technology structure with the developed countries,developing countries and "BRIC countries",we finds that technical structure of the export of service trade in China is advancing to the high end,and the optimization and upgrading of the structure have emerged.However,it still concentrates on the upgrading path of medium and low technology products to high and middle technology products,the share of high-tech products export is too low,and China did not close to or exceed the technical structure of developed countries,so there is no "Rodrik paradox".Then,with the use of "cost discovery" theory model,we introduces fixed effect model and grey correlation analysis,we finds that the per capita GDP,total exports of trade in services,service trade openness,foreign direct investment and human capital of China’s service trade has a positive effect on the technical complexity of China’s service trade,among them,the service trade openness is the most significant,the infrastructure has a negative effect on the improvement of the technical complexity of the export of service trade in China,we can find a reasonable explanation for the difference between China and the world.The path of China’s development still follows the traditional theory of comparative advantage,so there is no "Rodrik paradox" in China’s service trade.Finally,based on the above theory and the empirical results,this paper gives the corresponding policy recommendations. |
