Analysis On Driving Factors Of Carbon Emission And The Countermeasures

The global climate problem since the industrial revolution has become more and more serious; especially the negative impact of greenhouse gas emissions on the climate CO2produced has formed a broad consensus in the international community, the carbon emission originated in the human production, consumption and distribution activities, especially in fossil energy consumption. If allowed to develop and thus blocking the natural link between economic growth and ecological environment, ecological ark we have will sink.China as the largest developing country, economic development change rapidly, the level of GDP goes along with the carbon emission. The international community has brought the huge emission reduction emission reduction pressure to Chinese, but our country is in a period of rapid development, development is the first priority, can’t give up eating for fear of choking, realized by hindering its development for energy conservation and emission reduction targets, the energy-saving emission reduction can only depend on the technology progress and policy guidance. Therefore, analysis of carbon emission driven factors scientifically, combing the forecasting analysis of different policy under the guidance of the development trend of carbon emission, in order to form a kind of ecological law as the guidance, to effectively control the carbon emission as the goal of the mode of economic development, to provide the reference for the national development policy reasonable, it has practical significance to realize China emission reduction targets.Based on previous research and the actual situation, firstly, screened12possible carbon emission driving factors, based on1996-2011data, using LARS algorithm to realize the Lasso process, and select the Lasso model, and the standard weight of all the factors, secondly, by ARIMA and GM (1,1) combination forecasting, forecasting the driving factors the data of2012-2030, by predicting the adjustment values of the control variables are simulated, no control scenario,5%control scenarios and10%control scenarios carbon emission2012～2030years of development trends, analysis results show that:1)The analysis of energy and its carbon consumption:from the aspect of energy production and reserve mining status, energy supply and demand balance, energy technology development analysis that the traditional energy has a series of problems:Energy resources in the overall run behind one’s expenses, the unbalanced condition that "rich coal, oil poor, less gas,"; it is difficult to guarantee the sustainable exploitation of energy, high degree of dependence on foreign, need to pay attention to energy security problem; Energy consumption structure is extremely unreasonable; the development of new energy technology has just started, the core technology is extremely lacking, resulting in high energy consumption carbon emission, emission reduction work harder. Considering the development needs and the current energy situation in China, only through independent innovation, to increase investment in new energy technology, to promote the rapid development of new energy, to improve the energy problem and the energy intensity and efficiency.2)Analysis of the driving factors of the carbon emission:Lasso model selected9has a significant influence on the carbon emission of the driving factors, from the12factors including:economic scale, industrial structure, the carbon emission of metastasis status, population quantity, population structure, energy structure, the proportion of clean energy, energy intensity and public transportation development level, and the effect of the energy intensity and economic scale is biggest, the coefficient were0.9731and0.9728, the energy structure is related to two factors,-0.0535, were0.2935, third, fifth degree of influence ranking, population number and the population structure of the coefficient were0.1929,0.0019, and the industrial structure, the carbon emission of transfer coefficients were0.0032,0.0028, influence of public transportation development level0.0002is the lowest, visible energy intensity and economic scale is the main reason for the formation of carbon emission, energy structure, population, the proportion of clean energy are significant factors influencing the carbon emission, the industrial structure, the carbon emission of metastasis status, population structure, public transportation development level is an important factor affecting the carbon emission, and the influence of the speed of economic development, the consumption level and city level on the carbon emission of the unknown Explicit.3)The development of simulation scenario carbon emission:Based on the results of the Lasso model and the ARIMA-GM (1,1) combination forecasting, determining the energy structure, the proportion of clean energy, industrial structure, population and energy intensity as the control variables, and set up5%and10%of two control efforts, no control scenario,5%control trend of carbon emission for strength and10%control scenarios dynamics of scenario analysis, the simulation results show that:the drive control and adjustment factors have obvious effect on the inhibition of carbon emission.4)Countermeasures to control the carbon emission:according to the carbon emission of driving factors analysis and scenario simulation results, put forward the countermeasures based from transformation to smart economic growth, strengthen the key chain management, promote the green transformation of energy and expand the carbon sequestration channels, including that adjustment of industrial structure, the transformation of foreign trade structure, promote low-carbon city and traffic development, implementation of regulatory policy on carbon emissions, improve energy independence, promote new energy technology innovation development, enhance the use of natural carbon sinks, specific countermeasures for the development of CSS technology, provides the theoretical data support for the government to formulate the policy of controlling carbon emission.