The Research On The Influence Factors Of Carbon Emission Price Based On The Empirical Analysis Of European Market

Nowadays, carbon emission right has been one of the main current metho ds to cope with the climate change. But as a special asset and new-born good s, the carbon emission right has special attributes and characteristics compared with ordinary commodity, so it can not be priced with traditional asset valuatio n method. So the paper tightly around the difficulties of value assessment of t he special asset of carbon emission, to assess its value through the analysis of the influence factors of the carbon emission, trying to provide a new way to effectively evaluate the value of the carbon emission through the theoretical an d empirical analysis of the influence factors of carbon emission, which can rea lize its function in dealing with the global warming.According to the characteristics of carbon emission, the combination of the oretical and empirical, qualitative and quantitative methods has been used in thi s article which is to analyze the influence factors of carbon price under the E U ETS, so it can provide some reference for the valuation of carbon right. Th is paper clears up the influence factors of carbon price from the perspective of economy, environment and policy under the EU ETS, we find that the energy price、climate change、the substitute price、Macro-economic situation、emissio n reduction technology、quota allocation plan、the CER issued all will affect t he carbon price. Then we select average monthly price of EUA from the year2010to2013under the EU ETS and have a quantitative study of the influenc e factors of carbon price by using the PCAM and regression method. After the empirical analysis, we find that the factor of high-carbon energy and economy development has significant influence on the carbon price, and the power pric e has the most obvious influence. The factor of low-carbon energy also has ve ry serious effect, while the influence of climate change and policy change on carbon price is not obvious. Finally, we make a verification of the empirical re sult, we find that the volatility trend of the actual price and predicted price of EUA which has gone through second difference is almost consistently, which indicates that the regression model we build in this article can reflect the valu e of the asset of carbon emission, which can provide some instruction for the formation of the carbon price in our country.