Risk Analysis Of Railway LPG Tanker Transportation

The LPG as a kind of common hazardous chemical,which transported by railwaytanker,has erosive,flammable,explosive and other characteristics. so once the leakageoccurs, it may cause intoxication, fire and explosion accident and threaten people’s life,property safety and the surrounding environment along the railway. Therefore, studies how tocarry out risk analysis from two aspects: source of the accident and accident consequences, Toreduce the risk of LPG railway tanker transportation, has a certain practical significance.Firstly, This article summarizes the achievements and contents of risk analysis ofdangerous goods at home and abroad, explores and analyzes many typical cases of LPGdomestic railway transportation accident, Identifies the main factors that caused the accidentrisk, and analyzes the dangers of these risk factors. On this basis, builds a risk evaluationindex system, uses AHP-F to evaluate index system, obtains significance ordering of riskfactors, thus raises practical risk mitigation measures for factors that has big influence, andcontrol the risk from fountainhead.Secondly, This article analysis the risk from the consequences of accident, put riskfactors of the index system as modifying factor to correct the basic accident probabilityof LPG railway tank transportation. Builds model to obtain probability of poisoning, fire andexplosion secondary accident scenario that are caused by LPG leakage. Then, from casualtiesand environmental destruction that caused by accident to judge the severity of accident.Finally, combines with the instance, uses ALOHA software to simulation and analysisdamage area and size of the hazard area with the different influence degree in case ofpoisoning, flash, VCE and BLEVE accident scene. Also simulate the process of concentrationversus time of individual special sensitive region in damage region. On the basis of simulation,makes reasonable emergency plans. Uses Google Earth to visualize each hazard area at mapof accident site, the calculate personnel area and environmental area of different threshold.Collects population density data, environmental sensitivity coefficients of hazard area andindividual death probability of different distances and accident scenarios. Establishesevaluation model of scenarios to assess accident consequences, and get individual risk andsocial risk results in affected region for the accident section.