Research On The Drivers And Control Of Chinese Energy Carbon Footprint

Rapid economic development has significant role in promoting carbon footprint growth, with theresult that the ecological environment we depend on to survive become increasingly fragile. Eco-boat ofhumans will sank in splitting the contact of economic growth and natural environment expansion. Humanbehavior must be coordinated with the characteristics of an ecosystem-based energy constraints, must seeka balance between economic growth and carbon footprint control. The openness of economic system andthe complexity of the environment system have led to the uncertainty of the control of carbon footprint.Therefore, a clear impact on the growth drivers of carbon footprint, has important practical significance inmaking rational control of carbon footprint and laying down the development policy of low-carboneconomic. Thesis depend on sustainable development, recycling economics and the science of ecologicalfootprint theory, exploring the drivers of China’s energy carbon footprint by researching and analyzinghistorical data. The result provides data support and theoretical basis for slowing the growth of carbonfootprint and transforming economic development modeThe paper reviews the analysis and interpretation of domestic and foreign scholars on carbonfootprint related issues. On this basis, from the perspective of systems theory, reinterpreted and summarizesthe factors that influence carbon footprint. Besides, try to make systematically collection and effectivelyidentify imputation about carbon footprint drivers, thus to seek effective ways to control the growth ofcarbon footprint. The paper uses Random Forest algorithms, taking into account the fitting characteristicsof different data and VIM mechanism of screening the main drivers of carbon footprint. Through partialleast squares (PLS) method to make screen of the driving factors, and to simplify the indicator system toconstruct the carbon footprint impact model, which reveals the dynamic mechanism to promote energycarbon footprint for sustained growth. Finally, based on the findings, China’s national conditions and thedevelopment of advanced experience of foreign countries, the paper further proposed measures to slowdown carbon footprint growth, to develop low-carbon economy. The main contents and conclusions of thepaper are as follows:Firstly, the analysis on status of energy and the development of and carbon footprint: The systemexplores the status of China’s current energy consumption, energy regulators and energy carbon footprint.The study found that the energy consumption has the problem of total consumption increasing,consumption structure abnormal and supply and demand gap expanding; energy management system withloose regulation, lack of monitoring mechanisms and other defects; while increasing of the total carbonfootprint, and no substantive progress in carbon footprint intensity and output. With the Increasingdepletion of energy and environmental pressures from home and abroad, there are great need for targetedadjustment and management.Secondly, the analysis based on random forest of carbon footprint driving factors: by using VIMmechanisms, identifying the scale of economic development, investment in fixed assets, residentialconstruction and technical level and other five factors are the main drivers of the system of carbon footprint.The VIM of industrial structure, economic size and fixed assets in economic subsystem have reached8.1575,7.9486and7.8169, respectively. The conclusion shows that the economic development has playeda vital role in the rapid increase of carbon footprint. The VIM of population size and residential buildings in social subsystem are7.6787and7.4774; while the importance of technical support subsystem level score is7.3458; the VIM of ecological carbon sink to show characterization of environment subsystems is only2.2653. These figure, to some extent, confirmed the fact that our ecosystem is hard to make ends meet.Thirdly, empirical studies based on partial least squares method: By using PLS to further explore themain factors of carbon footprint, combined with the conclusion of the randomly forest, to select steadydriving factors of carbon footprint, whereby carbon footprint driven model is constructed. The results ofmodel confirm that the driving force of industrial structure, economic size and population size have reachedthe0.24042,0.17260and0.12175; labor force and technical generate a damping effect levels on the carbonfootprint, the inhibition of the growth of carbon footprint are-0.06043,-0.00825respectively. Theempirical results objectively and comprehensively reflect the dynamic mechanism of action and the internallogic relationships among carbon footprint and its drivers.Finally, based on the empirical results of the paper, combined with China’s national conditions and thedevelopment of advanced foreign experience, proposed twelve measures in five areas to develop lowcarbon economy, build low-carbon society, innovate low-carbon support, foster low-carbon environmentand strengthen international cooperation to slow the growth of in carbon footprint, develop low-carboneconomy. The finding provides data support and policy reference for the government departments todevelop carbon footprint management measures.