An Analysis For Population Viability Of Moose In Heihe Shengshan

ShengShan, one of the distribution area of Manchruian Moose (Alces alces cameloides) , situates in the West-north border of Lesser Khingan Mountains. . The author carried out the research of moose ecology from 2002 to 2005. The moose's population number was evaluated base on the previous research. This paper introducted the history development and future direction of population viability analysis and discussed the habitat utilize by moose. The Vortex model was used to analysis the factors of effecting population dynamics. The results as the following:1. The dejecta and others traces survey method was used to analysis the population number. According to the field investigation there are about 87-24 moose in ShengShan, desease 71% ~ 67% compareation with the number of 1986.2. The author use Manly choose coefficient to carry out the habitat selection by moose. The results showed that: moose select the location with character of sunny slope (55.7%) , less slope (69.6%) ,snow depth less than 40cm, far distance from road and distance form cut sit more than 500m; the shelter and slope prominence correlation with forest type(P<0.01) ;The traces of moose exists high shelter and medium shelter in the coniferous forest, deciduous broadleaved forest, shrub, swamp; the traces of moose were found in medium shelter, low shelter in the meadow; the traces of moose appeared medium shelter, low shelter in the coniferous forest and high shelter and medium shelter in the deciduous broadleaved forest, shrub and meadow, the traces of moose stand low shelter by found in the swamp.3. The future dynamics of the moose population were predicted with different parameters by means of VORTEX9.503. The predictions showed that, the both of catastrophics would influence the population to certain extent. Populatioin size would decline rapidly with the catatstrophic degree increase, especially in two factors (fire and Poaching), the decline rate is obvious. Only 5 individual after 100 years. The single catastrophic factor by simulated, we found that the influence of poaching have higher effects on population, the sensitive analysis index is 0.8347. the dynamics of population would be conspicuously impacted by inbreeding rate. The sensitive index would increase and population decline would be speeded up as the increase of lethal equivalents per diploid. Variation of environmental capacity would influence that population to certain extent; there are awfully negative influences on population when the capacity was reduce to half. Population sizes would also be impacted to different degrees by environmental variation (EV) , the sensitive index show that the mortality rate of calf would increase as EV raise. Respective is - 3.8609 and 3.8191, as mortality rate of calf increase 5% and reduce 5%.