The Spatial Prediction Of Bedding Rock Landslide In Three Gorges Reservoir Area Of Shazhenxi Town, Zigui County

The consequent rock landslide broke out suddenly and always caused enormous destructive, especially, it was difficult to predict. Shazhenxi, Zigui County is located in the right bank of the Yangtze River. It developted two major tributaries in this area, Qingan river and Luogudong river. The study area has dip topography and the bedding slop has a wide distribution range, In the recent history, two big landslides has been happened which resulting in huge loss of life and property, so it was very important to develop the spatial prediction of bedding landslide in the area.This paper selected seven intrinsic factors and two external evoked factors incluincluding formation lithology, terrain slope, rock mass integrity, geological structure,bedrock inclination, the free surface condition, combination type of slopebody, continuous rainfall, reservoir water level and the corresponding data standardization operation is carried out according to the different influence factors. There kinds of rainfall conditions and there kinds of reservoir water level conditions were selected, and the combinations of the nine kinds of conditions were used as the input conditions of the prediction model.This paper selected the Muyubao landslide, the Qianjiangping landslide, the Dalingdianzhan landslide, the Sangshuping landslide as the sample of landslide based on Dalingdianzhan landslide which occurred when the rainfall and reservoir water level conditions, and used the grey incidence analysis to get the weight of the 9 input factors of the forecast model, they were: the weight of formation lithology was 0.1, the weight of terrain slope was 0.2, the weight of rock mass integrity was 0.3, the weight of geological structure was 0.1, the weight of bedrock inclination was 0.2, the weight of the free surface condition was 0.35, the weight of combination type of slopebody was 0.4, the weight of continuous rainfall was 0.3, and the weight of reservoir water level was 0.35, and then the threshold value of the rock slope was calculated to be 2.3 under this working condition.Finally, the spatial prediction model of rock bedding slope with multiple factors was established, and the following conclusions are obtained:1)Increasing the continuous rainfall or raising the water level of the reservoir can lead to the occurrence of the rock slope in the study area;2)The spatial distribution of the potential rock bedding slope in the study area when the continuous rainfall reached 186 mm or reservoir water level reached 175 m or both the continuous rainfall reached 88 mm and reservoir water level reached 156 m is mainly:Range between Dalingdianzhan landslide and Shanshucao landslide, region from Hongshixi landslide to Xionghuangshan landslide, area of Muyubao landslide;3) Rainfall and reservoir water have a great impact on the stability of rock slope stability, especially in the case of high water level accompanied by heavy rain or continuous rainfall, It is needed to pay close attention to the above danger zone mentioned.