| In a variety of natural disasters, drought occurs widest range, most frequently affecting the heaviest disasters. In recent years, with the increasing losses from natural disasters, mitigation work increasingly the attention of Governments, scholars from various countries carried out extensive research drought disaster and risk perception, but two areas of study are almost always independent, and since the micro-regional drought disaster will directly affect the risk of local farmers perceived health, and behavior after farmers perceived risk will also affect the drought disaster level, a correct understanding of the next man-land relationship, drought disaster and farmers risk perception of responsiveness, both from the research level or application level of drought disaster risk management system has important theoretical and practical value.Based on this, the present study sample selection in Yunnan Plateau Mountain villages and rural households, agricultural drought system to carry out a full investigation. BP neural network, a variety of theories and techniques matter element model, the psychometric paradigm, Howard Heath model, Logistic binary regression model and SPSS statistical analysis and other research. Select the recent drought disaster more seriously affected three villages in Dali, Yunnan Province Nanjian County:Krasnaya Zvezda, Yong Chui village, apricot village, micro-region to carry out man-land relationship, the micro-region drought disaster risk perception between farmers and empirical research, specifically:First, based on environmental awareness, environmental psychology, local theory, theory and environmental lens cognitive theory, the micro-region under analysis to the relationship between people, between farmers and village drought disaster response mechanisms of risk perception;Second, to establish from the people, places, gas three drought disaster evaluation system, construct BP neural network model, Nanjian county 27 villages ahead drought disaster assessment, select the degree of the disaster is not the same three villages studied, the results show Yong Chui village level disaster of drought severely affected, followed by Krasnaya Zvezda for the disaster, disaster smallest village apricots, mild disaster; application of matter element model farmer household level agricultural drought disaster. The results show, Yong Chui village families hardest hit, the index value of 3.58, followed by Krasnaya Zvezda,2.63,2.04 Apricot Village, home disaster lightest, this drought disaster assessment and Villages consistent trend;Third, according to the theory, from the local farmers a sense, knowledge of risks, risk attitude, risk communication and risk motivation of farmers to build five factors influence risk perception, combined with Likert amount that various influencing factors, according to the questionnaire, statistical analysis farmers risk perception index, the results show, Yong Chui village of risk perception index values up to 2.07, Krasnaya Zvezda 2.04,2.03 apricot village, village farmers in different disaster risk perception or less, and perceived levels are low.Fourth, based on Howard Heath constitutive model to follow "SOR" mode, using factor analysis studies on farmers’risk perception factors division, a total of five independent variable factor, a factor dependent variables, using inter Logistic binary regression model analysis factor prevalence of significant correlation. Using pearson correlation analysis under study micro-region man-land relationship, villages drought disaster, the impact rural households disaster and farmers risk perception between correlation analysis showed farmers risk perception and Villages drought disaster, farmers family disaster in significance level under 0.01, radiate significant correlation;... |
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