Research On Land Subsidence Mechanism And Prediction Of Settlement In Hengshui Area

With the rapid expansion of cities and the rapid development of the population, the exploitation of groundwater continue increasing, land subsidence has become one of the major geological disasters in North China Plain. This thesis choose Hengshui which is a serious land subsidence area in the North China Plain as the study object. Analyzes the mechanism of land subsidence in this area by the means of laboratory tests, simulates the groundwater flow field by a groundwater numerical model,the area of land subsidence development in the future was predicted.Some soil samples in the study area were taken for a series of tests in the laboratory, and the physical parameters, mechanical parameters correspond to the depth were tested. Some relevant analysis for the study area were made by analyzing these datas. By collecting and analyzing the drilling data in the study area, the Quaternary strata aquifer were divided into four groups. Based on this, combination with the hydrogeological conditions of the study area, groundwater conceptual model in the study area were established with the use of GMS software. At the same time, the parameters required for sub module of GMS software were collected and made for a series of statistic analysis, lowest previous head of various aquifers of study area are processed, bases on these, a groundwater flow- land subsidence simulation model in Hengshui area was constructed successfully.After the model was constructed successfully, the parameters for the model were adjusted appropriately by the method of trial and error with the standards of groundwater flow contours and typical observed wells data so that the model was more agreed with actual situation.In this paper, in addition to using GMS software to predict land subsidence of study area, regression model was established by analyzing the relationship between the water levels and the cumulants of land subsidence. The development trend of land subsidence in Hengshui area was analyzed and forecasted by these ways. The prediction results were approximated which proves the forecast ways and the results were ideal. The prediction results show that land subsidence center is located in the downtown of Hengshui area-Taoyuan district. Besises, the results provide a relevant basis for the prevention and control of land subsidence in the study area.