Trend Of The Distribution Change Of Black-billed Capercaillie (Tetrao Urogalloides) On Space-time Scale

Knowledge of species distribution, including historical information and future trend, is fundamental for effective conservation and management. In this study, the distribution of Black-billed Capercaillie (Tetrao urogalloides) in 1970s,1980s,1990s,2000s were reconstructed and the future distribution under the two scenario RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in 2041-2060(2050s),2061-2080(2070s) were predicted by the utilization of geographic information system (GIS) and Maxent model with the local gazetteers as historical distribution data source. The pattern and reasons of the distribution and changes in the future distribution of Black-billed Capercaillie were analyzed, it could be a reference of conservation strategy of Black-billed Capercaillie, and suggested a feasible way to provide dynamic distribution data for wildlife protection. The main conclusions of this report are as follows:(1) The distribution of Black-billed Capercaillie has been shrunk year by year and then tend to be stable, the area of distribution area reduced by 23.57% on the whole. The shrink in the 1990s was more obvious and the populations in Changbai Mountain were disappeared.(2) Under the future climate change, the distribution of Black-billed Capercaillie would reduce. The distribution under RCP 8.5 scenario would shrink more strongly than under RCP 4.5. Under both of the two scenarios, the distribution in 2070s would be less than in the 1950s, and the suitable distribution area would shrink to northwest part.(3) The Black-billed Capercaillie was easier to climate change. To take more in-situ protection measures is suggested to protect this species in north Great Khingan Range.