Research On The Civil Service Pension System Reform Based On System Dynamics Simulation

Endowment insurance system is an important part, also important content of social security system. Whether it has a benign development or not makes a great difference to social stabilization and whether the basic livelihood of the old-age can be guaranteed or not. By some history reasons, the pension system for civil servants and urban workers is not integrated. With the development of society and the change of environment, the disadvantages of the pension’s "double track system" emerged, which not only impeded the rational flow of labor force, but also leded to the gap between groups of civil servants and urban workers. Thus this system severely affected social justice, and went against forming a unified labor market and constracting a social pension system.This paper, based on the platform of simulation software AnyLogic6.9, mainly analysis the unifying reformation for civil servants’ pension scheme by way of system dynamic simulation. Though collecting and analyzing some relevant data, conforming the relationship between the variables and parameters, this paper constructed a system dynamic model of unifying reformation for civil servants’ pension scheme by operational definition. Benchmark experiment founded that,under the condition of current policy, if we bring group of civil servants directly into the pension system of urban workers, the discrepancy of social average replacement rate level between the pension level of urban workers and civil servants’will reach to approximately 22%. And the nation fund expenditure will go beyond the fund revenue by 2025. Consequently the imbalance will become more and more serious, which has no conducive to the long-term smooth running of pension insurance fund. Many optimization simulation experiments founded that if we can make a organic combination of a workable system of enterprise’s contribution rate level, constructing a occupational pension system for civil servants and improving the enterprise’s per capita pension proportion, the above mentioned discrypancy is only 4.4% by 2040. And also civil servant’s replacement ratio will decline slowly, which is propitious to a smooth transition to " the middle-aged man". This paper finally developed a relatively rational combination of reforming strategy, which can effectively achieve the basic goal of realizing the unifying reformation of civil servants’ pension scheme.