| In accordance with the international definition of aging society,China has entered the aging society in the late twentieth Century,and the number of elderly population is still rising at an annual rate of 2.3%.The latest data released by the National Bureau of statistics show that in 2016 China's elderly population over the age of 60 has reached 231 million,the population aging degree further deepen.Along with this,the development of the three pension service system,which is supported by the institutional pension,lags behind,and there are some problems such as poor service conditions,difficult to integrate resources,low management efficiency and so on.China is the first country in the elderly population of billions of dollars and "not rich first old" country,is facing a huge increase in the size of the silver haired people brought great impact.With the pension demand in China is soaring and the real estate industry into a downward cycle,the economic development of our country bid farewell to high,around these dynamic changes step by step forced rapid development of pension real estate development dilemma,confined to the pension industry in our country,housing prices did not find a suitable profit model of export.In December 23,2016,the State Council issued the "several opinions on" fully liberalized pension services market to enhance the quality of service pension proposed in the field of pension services to the government and social capital cooperation(PPP)the project,can the state-owned construction land use right as the price of shares or capital construction.In China social situation,the government will assist in land acquisition,work mode and product supply approval,pension policy advantages and developers advanced management level and the combination of high efficiency,can directly reduce the project cost of land and shadow cost,provide product supply more efficient and effective distribution of benefits and risks.Based on this,the article first analyzes the connotation of pension and Chinese PPP,and compares the differences and advantages and disadvantages of Chinese PPP and international PPP to lay the theoretical foundation for the operation of PPP project.Then,by discussing the applicability and operation mechanism of PPP in the pension project,it will provide reference for the government to operate the PPP project and the implementation plan.Secondly,the influencing factors of the proceeds of the PPP project are analyzed,and the simulation model of the proceeds of the PPP project is established by using the system dynamics method and Vensim software.Finally,combined with the case of Zirui City PPP project jointly developed by SUNAC and Beijing FX,the validity of the model was tested,and the profit of the project was simulated in the next 30 years,and the trend of the later income of Zirui City project and the sensitivity of various factors Sexual analysis.The results of the paper show that there is a fundamental difference between Chinese PPP and international PPP.In the pension project of the old-age real estate,the mode of rent-back and concurrent mode is far more than that of the pure membership leasing model.When the rental ratio is about 2:1(Rent ratio of the number of cases),the amount of concessionary membership,the annual sales volume and the franchise price have positive and negative sensitivity to the net present value and the concession period respectively,and the sensitivity is weakened;the article is established.Of the system dynamics simulation model can effectively predict the future income of PPP projects and investment payback period,and apply to other PPP projects;private enterprises can observe the proceeds of the project to determine the outcome of cooperation or not,the Government can measure the various factors To finalize the details of the final license contract,and then for the project company to adjust the latter part of the operational strategy to provide effective decision support. |
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