Change Trend Of Hydrological Elements And Application Of Improved Xin’anjiang Model In Tailan River Basin

The alpine mountain river is the basic guarantee of local economic development as the birthplace, andalso is frequently area of extreme natural disasters. Xinjiang’s major rivers originate in mountain glaciersand snow cover area for many years，In the context of climate change，it is very important to study thealpine mountain river hydrological processes and various changes in hydrological and meteorologicalelements。In order to grasp the hydrological regions change with context of climate change in tailan river basin,according to the temperature、precipitation and runoff data on tailan station from1957to2010，analysis anddiscuss the trends of each hydro meteorological elements with varieties of mathematical statistics. Theresult indicate：Precipitation internal amplitude increase and the average precipitation is stable and thegeneral has a rising trend;The temperature in1980as the dividing line Significantly reduce the trendbefore and after a significant upward trend, Overall temperature has obvious rising trend; Runoff showed asignificantly increasing trend preliminarily determine the composition of the spring temperature is thedominant factor in runoff, while in summer and winter precipitation and air temperature work together.In the study of the alpine mountains, because of data limitations, the traditional method has beenwidely used indicators of temperature in snowmelt models, with the development of science, access to newdata sources, it is possibly to improve the traditional temperature indicators method. Based on thetraditional temperature indicators improved method, and applied to Xin’anjiang model with snowmeltstructure, with the daily hydro meteorological data from2003to2009for hydrological simulation, theresults show that improved temperature index method can be applied to the Xin’anjiang model, and getgood results in the runoff simulation study. This establishment mountain hydrological forecasting systemfor watershed planning and the protection of water resources security have a scientific value and practicalsignificance is very important.