Analysis And Prediction On The Life Span & Costs Of Dormitory Buildings Of Jilin University Qian-Wei Southen School

In order to solve the comtact contradiction between the rapidgrowph of education development and the little education space,Ji-Lin university building construction mission are more heavy. highschool existing cost manage model puts the project cost manage onthe construction stage ,emphasizes the building cost, while take littlecourse on future operation and maintain cost, which can noteffectively control and manage the life cycle cost.International life cycle cost assessment and management iswidely applied to almost all the construction rang, including buildings,highway, bridge, hydraulic system, even to some special parts ofbuildings. In our country construction rank , life cycle costassessment is only in the exploring stage , and hardly used in highschool buildings.Guided by national and international engineering costmanagement , linked to construction economy , mathematics,computer science, combining to latterly relative research result andthe national cost analysis state, the papers carries out future cost andtotal life cycle cost unit price through annual cost graph and predictedgraph, and then , make round chart to fine the various componentpercentage , in order to fine its single effect to total cost. From theanalysis result , we can see , the operating cost accounts for 50% ofthe total cost. High school building investment can not only considerthe initial capital, while based of LCC , make decision. Inaddition ,north high school require heating, heating cost accounts formore than 20%, more than initial capital of low classic designbuildings. Making plan in high school should encourage to saveenergy. Economizing initial capital , while ignoring to save energy atmaking decision stage , is not encouraged.According to collected cost data of 10 different classic dormitorybuildings of Ji-Lin university , with mathematic statistical method ,the papers statistics the several component of life cycle cost , andtheir proportion relationship , and according to the happened costcomponent, with mathematic approximation method, predicts thetotal component cost through their life cycle, and their unit price, andfinally , compared to the known real cost component and predictioncost in real happen time , test the accuracy of prediction cycle cost.Based on the analysis and comparison, the papers gets the followingconclusion:1.constructed in the primary stage of school construction, andwith low application requirement and architecture standard , thecycle cost and its price of substandard dormitory is low relatively , thepercentage of capital is about 27% of the total cycle cost , while thesum of the operation and maintenance cost , etc , account for 73%,mush more than the capital in the construction stage. In the operationcost , the percentage of heating cost is about 31%, because heatingis paid with uniform standard , and happen every years.2. the percentage of capital of medium standard dormitory isfrom 30% to 35% of the total cycle cost , while the sum of theoperation and maintenance cost , etc , account for 65% to 73%,mush more than the capital in the construction stage. In the operationcost , the percentage of heating cost is about 31%, because heatingis paid with uniform standard , and happen every years. Forapplication requirement and architecture standard rising, its costprice increase correspondingly , and then the heating cost declines toabout 30%, the other cost component proportion change less.3. with the development of high school construction, theapplication requirement and architecture standard rise , for example ,the window are changed to plastic-steel , the ground is laid withgeostrophy, the exterior wall is pasted on wall brick, the percentageof capital of high standard dormitory is from about 34% of the totalcycle cost , more than medium standard , while the sum of theoperation and maintenance cost , etc , account for 64%, mush morethan the capital in the construction stage. After updating heatingfacility , heating cost declines in some way ,however the rising ofapplication of computer, electricity cost increases to about 14%.4.compaired to happened cost and predicted cost in real time,and considered cost discount , the papers verifies the prediction cost.From the verification result , the tow percentage number of costcomponent are closely , that is , the prediction accumulating cost isclose to the real one.For in north , it need heating in winner , heating cost accounts formush , percentage , and it should consider heat-insulating andenergy-saving in making decision. We suggest self-heating in orderto saving heating cost in buildings assembling zoom, when extendingnew school construction. That is said , lowest capital does not meanthe lowest total cost , making decision should consider the lowest lifecycle cost.