The Generalization And Empirical Analysis On The Precipitating Factors For The Shanghai Real Estate Bubble

Since the housing reform, shanghai real estate market has been developing greatly. Especially in recent years, shanghai housing price rises madly, separating itself from the citizens' income level. The real estate bubble rises up and becomes the hot topic for many scholars from home and abroad. However, they mainly focus on whether the bubble exists or not and its danger. Moreover, their researches for the causes of Shanghai real estate bubble are mostly in the level of discussion and few of them are based on empirical studies.This thesis tries to conduct a systematic research which focuses on the followings: Firstly, comparing real estate market in Shanghai with the ones in Beijing and Guangzhou, we reveal some operational characters in shanghai real estate market. Secondly, according to the ratio of price and income, we point out shanghai real estate market indeed exists bubble. Thirdly, we put forward ten precipitating factors, such as policies, economic development, world exposition effect, urbanization, RMB factor, loan, expectation. Fourthly, we apply survival analysis to give the empirical analysis on some factors. We discover that the main causes of the raising price are total industrial output, disposable income per capita, expectation factor and domestic loan, however, the loan rate does not have significant impact on the property price, and the ratio of property investment over fixed investment nearly has no impact on this raising price. Also, we find that the successful bidding for the world exposition can push up the real estate market price, but the speculation on this concept is reducing. Moreover, some policies, such as rigid restraint on loan and land, aiming at controlling the rising property price, spur the property price conversely. And their effect is limited with the passage of time.