Theoretical Research Into The Housing Demand And The Relevant Empirical Analysis Of Shanghai's Housing Market

With China's rapid economics growth, the real estate industry of China is also undergoing an unprecedented development. However at the same time there emerge disharmonic tunes in the process, which attract many focus, including over-investment in housing construction, unreasonable housing prices rise and exploding housing demand, etc. If such trend continues without control, the future development of housing markets even the real estate industry as a whole will be impeded and damaged. Hence it is necessary that we research into the causes of these phenomena, meanwhile in-depth economic study will undoubtedly be benefit for the industry progress, policy making as well as the increase of social welfare.Since the basic focus on the research of markets lies in the demand and supply, and individual demand behaviors in large sense decide the supply of firms, this thesis will analyze and study, standing on the perspective of demand behaviors, the corresponding economic factors in housing markets theoretically and empirically. Specifically, a general two-period dynamic intertemporal utility optimization model is established on the frame of microeconomics in order to separate the consumption and investment motives in the demand for housing andexplore the impact upon the housing demand by the change of the economic factors of interest through comparative statics analysis. Via employing mathematics tool we are able to discuss four different real situations and unveil the economic signification behind the housing phenomena. Consequently, in order to maximize the intertemporal utility, the interactions of individual income, income path, saving and expected prices change with consumption and investment demand.Then on the grounds of theoretical study, this thesis collects the monthly housing trade data and corresponding economic variables of interest of Shanghai's market so as to inspect the former analysis. During the empirical stimulation, housing market of Shanghai is regarded as disequilibrium;hence the demand and supply model in disequilibrium is employed under the assumption that new-constructed housing and housing stock markets are separated. While the model includes major variables in the theoretical research, due to the restricted access to statistics data, we are merely able to testify the theoretical conclusion in some sense rather than to show entirely the consumption and investment motives in the demand for housing. The empirical results match the theoretical conclusion fairly well, in particular the conspicuous effect of the driving force by expected prices change to the demand. And the results above also indicates some unsound situations in Shanghai's housing market such as the furthering of markets disequilibrium, over-investment demand and the vicious circle resulted from the exploding housing prices rise and thus the decrease of social welfare.Finally combined the theoretical study with empirical results as well as status quo in housing markets, the thesis predicts the future situations and delivers some comments and suggestions, so that it is able to provide sound reference to well-balanced development of thehousing markets of Shanghai as well as the rest of China in the future.Wu Hong (Industrial Economics) Supervised by He Wei...