A Research On The Demand Of China's Steel Market

The steel industry is an important fundamental industry of national economy.The judgement to the development of steel industry's scale and structure in the future , not only have influenced the steel industry's own investment and development, but also influenced a great deal of industry from upstream to downstream, even the overall situation of national economy. Therefore, under the condition of market economy , we must pay attention to the research on demand law of steel market . This thesis analyzes the factors concerning the steel demand in China, and we conclude that many factors are the main reasons affecting the demand of steel market including GDP growth, industrial structure optimization and development of science and technology, etc..After that, we put forward four basic conditions for the realization of steel demand saturation in China, namely realization of basic modernization, increasing of per-capita GDP,innovation of industrial structure and decreasing of the ratio of primary industry . This thesis uses new econometric analytical tools,such as the cointegration theory and the vectorial autoregression(VAR)model , to forecast the amount and structure of the steel market demand.According to the econometric results ,It is shown that ,using the data of GDP and the intensity of steel consumption in China,we can carry on a more accurate short forecast to the total amount of the steel market demand,the apparent volume of china's steel consumption will arrive at about 0.34 billion tons in 2005; there is a long-term cointegration relation between the apparent volume of the steel consumption with the investment in fixed assets,therefore,we can use the data of investment in fixed assets to forecast the total amount of the steel market demand in a long term, the apparent volume of china's steel consumption will arrive at about 0.44 billion tons in 2010; the demand of the automobile industry, machinery industry , real estate industry and electrical home appliances industry have great impact to the steel market demand, the high value-added products used in these four industry will occupy about 80 percent of the total amount of the steel market demand. According to the research result, it is shown that the total amount of the steel market demand in several decades still have certain rising space and the demand of high value –added products will occupy great part of the total amount of the steel market demand. Accordingly, The steel enterprise should speed the technology progress, optimize the product structure, to adapt the demand variety of the steel market.