A Study On The Evaluation And Pre-warning Of The Sustainable Development Of Urban Human Settlements In Lanzhou

To construct and to improve urban human settlements is an eternal subject for the human beings. With the rapid development of cities, urban human settlement of Chinese is in the face of a series of austere challenges, and the problems of urban human settlements are attached much more importance to. Meanwhile, people are more and more demanding of the urban human settlements quality. Therefore, all these require a sustainable development of urban human settlements.Along with the progressing of industrialization and urbanization, the special river valley and basin terrain together with its social economic conditions of Lanzhou put limitations on the development of urban human settlements. Lanzhou city sees a few problems which leads to the worse of its urban human settlements, impairs its sustainable development and catches Lanzhou in the glaring troubles of urban human settlements. Against the background, this thesis has made an evaluation and research into the sustainable development and evolution of the urban human settlements in Lanzhou. It not only analyses and monitors the going track of the urban human settlements leading Lanzhou city to a sound, optimized sustainable development, but also serves the purpose of reference for other northwest cities. The main points of the thesis are as follows.Firstly, on the basis of macro aspect of city, a restudy on the urban human settlements theory and the sustainable development conception, the thesis constructs an evaluation standard system of sustainable development of urban human settlements, which is composed of 47 fundamental inflexible standards, several flexible standards and the following 3 subsystems, i.e. natural ecological environment, artificial construction environment, economic social environment.Secondly, the thesis evaluates the sustainable development of Lanzhou urban human settlements of the period from 1990 to 2003 in terms of the index of development standard, sustainment and coordination, revealing the evolution tendency and the law of time and space. Through analyzing, a conclusion has been drawn that since the ninetieth, Lanzhou city had passed through 4 development stages, i.e. stable development, gradual deterioration, fluctuating adjustment and fast development. The sustainable standard of urban human settlements system has been gradually promoted and ascended to a higher level as a whole. Yet the sustainable standard is still rather low, and the sustainment and overall coordination of system both are awaiting improvement.Thirdly, making a horizontal comparison between Lanzhou city with 14 similar cities in China, the thesis has presented that the natural ecological environment is the most weak link in the construction of Lanzhou urban human settlements, which becomes the main restriction on the sound sustainable development of urban humansettlements. Due to the low development standard of the other subsystems, Lanzhou has ranked last compared with those similar cities in terms of the overall standard of urban human settlements, lagging behind the other capital cities in the northwest of China. Therefore, Lanzhou should orient its future development towards natural ecology preservation and ecological environment construction while speeding up city fundamental construction, promoting city image and pushing on the economic social development standard. However, the urban human settlements construction is a rather formidable task, which fixes the heavy responsibilities upon us.Fourthly, the thesis applies the artificial neural network to pre-warning of each system of Lanzhou urban human settlements. The pre-warning results show that: the subsystem of artificial constructed environment will still maintain a sound developing momentum during the period from 2003 to 2006 and in 2006 it will reach the superior-development level of the blue-light-zone, It is forecasted that in 2007 the subsystem of Lanzhou artificial construction will be in a fundamentally sustainable development state. Perhaps the subsystem standard of natural ecological environment will come down a little in 2003-2004, but it will rocket up close to the middle level of the blue-light-zone during the period from 2004 to 2006. In terms of the forecast, the subsystem of Lanzhou natural ecological environment will remain at the high standard of quasi-sustainable development in 2007. From 2004 to 2006, the subsystem of Lanzhou economic social environment will see a further improvement approaching the middle of the superior level in the blue-light-zone and it will remain at the middle standard of fundamentally sustainable development in 2007. The general system of Lanzhou urban human settlements will keep a favorable development trend during the period from 2004 to 2006 and is expecting an approach to the fundamentally sustainable level of the blue-light-zone in 2006, but the speed for the overall advancement will likely slow down. According to the forecast, Lanzhou urban human settlements will secure a standard of fundamentally sustainable development in the coming year 2007.Lastly, the thesis has put forward a few suggestions for the optimization of the sustainable development of Lanzhou urban human settlements, offering new supports for policy-makers in departments of urban planning, land evaluation, landscape planning, real estate development and so on.