Research And System Dynamics Model Simulation On Water Strategy

Water is commonly considered as the basic and safeguard of national economy and social development. Without sustainable water support, economic and social sustainable development is impossible. The current situation is, as the other countries, water crisis becomes aggravate. Water shortage has become a pressing issue. Contradiction in the supply and demand of water has become an important national economic development constraint. How to deal with the constraint, and make the limited water yield well, how to keep water sustainable, all of them are the focus.Scientific and rational water strategy is not only good for the coordination of national economic and social development, but has sustained enormous role in promoting a virtuous circle. Otherwise, it will be counterproductive. So, This dissertation proposes the conception and the connotation of regional water security strategy, as well as attributes, characteristics, structure and its framework according to the principles and objectives of overall coordinated, sustained development of regional social economy and ecological environment. According to scientific development conception, a system dynamics model is established on thoughts of sustainable development, systematic analysis and strategy using a regional scale, which is a application of theory and methodology of system dynamics. Based on the water strategy, can we solve all kinds of water problems scientifically, and accomplish water security and sustainable use of water resources.The rapid development of high-tech and information revolution and the emergence of System Dynamics, are all the prerequisites for the dynamic simulation on interaction of system water strategy and regional development.A regional water strategy model is established in this dissertation by using System Dynamics method, three factors be considered in it —water security, economic security and ecological security. Researches on scientific and reasonable regional water security strategy are of most importance to developments of regional economic society and ecological environment. It is also the innovation of this dissertation. The effects of measures of water security strategy to social economy and environment within a certain period to come are analyzed to provide the scientific basis for regional sustainable development. The lower reaches of North River in Guangdong Province are considered as the case to verify and simulate the system of regional water strategy. Conclusions and the relative suggestions are represented at the end of the dissertation.