| Oil industry plays a decisive role to the development of China's industry, even to the entire national economy. In recent years, oil resource has been in a state of being shortage in supply, the inharmony between resource supply and oil industry's development has become more and more prominent, this seriously constraints the sustainable development of China's oil industry. Especially after China's access to WTO, China's oil industry is now facing an ever-intensive international competition. Therefore, how to realize sustainable development of China's oil industry has become an urgent problem to be solved. Thus, to analyze the major influence factors and to evaluate the sustainable development level of China's oil industry will undoubtedly be of great practical significance. Firstly, by starting with the analysis of historical development and present situation of China's oil industry, this thesis systematically analyzes the evolution of China's oil industry on industrial organization, production, consumption and import & export, and sums up the special features of China's oil industry and its sustainable development, then sets up a sustainable development indexes system respectively from three aspects of resource, economy and society; Secondly, the thesis sieves indexes by adapting "principal component analysis"and comes into the main factor affecting sustainable development of China's oil industry, and in particular, analyzes the economic development of China's oil industry itself and oil resources; Thirdly, by using Delphi and Linear Regression methods, the thesis qualitatively & quantitatively evaluates the overall sustainable development level of China's oil industry, and the coordinate coefficient between resource and economy; At last, figures out how and in what way these factor under resource sub-system affect the sustainable development of China's oil industry by through Linear Regression method. The analysis result indicates that net oil resource import and surplus exploitable reserves bring positive impact on oil industry's sustainable development, however, the proportion of oil resource in total energy consumption, oil production/reserves ratio, proved oil reserves has a negative affect on oil industry's sustainable development. By through the study mentioned above, the thesis figures out some critical problems existed in China's oil industry and their roots, and in the light of the conclusion that "resource is the key factor affecting the sustainable development of China's oil industry", the thesis also comes up with policies such as enhancing both domestic and international crude oil supply, seeking oil substitutes and heightening the consciousness of energy conservation, etc., with an expectation to provide certain reference for sustainable development of China's oil industry. |
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