The Study On The Financing Risk Of The Subjects' Behavior In The Project Financing Of Government Engineering

A great number of Participants who mostly include the government, the initiator, the finance house, the project company, the contractor and the supervisor take part in the project–finance of government engineering,. The participants'behavior results in some project-finance risks. Furthermore, the benefit goal and benefit conflict are the most direct reason of participants'behavior. In this thesis, it begins with benefit analysis about those subjects. Then it confirms their benefit goal and their common ground as well as their conflict. A figure about the relation of each subject is drawn. And the analysis of the subjects'behavior is based on all the study above. According to the process of the risk management, the thesis identifies, forecasts, evaluates and allocates financing risks in the government project one by one. In the stage of the risk identification, it classifies the risks into three steps and seven categories. In the stage of the risk forecast, it introduces the Artificial Neural Networks. In the stage of the risk evaluation, it constructs an AHP model on the basis of the results of the risk identification and forecast, and attains the key subject's behavior which influences financing risk of the project with this model. In the stage of the risk allocation, it attains the material criterion to allocate the risk between the subjects on the basis of risk predilection coefficient. The subjects'behavior also is a process of decision-making one another. In the thesis, it divides the subjects who participate in the project financing into five couples, and constructs game theory model about the five couples. Then it tries to design the mechanism to control the subjects'illegal behavior. In this thesis, it puts forward three approaches to control the subjects'behavior in the process of the government project financing including idea approach, economic approach and institution approach, and gives some actual ways to deal with these problems on the basis of the research above. The thesis ends at the general conclusion, it indicates the characteristic and shortcoming of the method used in the thesis, further more, it looks forward the orientation of the research on such thesis.