The Analyzing, Forecasting And Planning On The Economic Development Of Tianjin Hi-Tech Industry Park

The thesis analyzes the history economic developing data of Tianjin Hi-tech Industry Park (THIP) first time to divide the system layering a regulation for proceeding analysis, from inside describing the regular pattern of THIP area economy developing. According to the Grey Theory, a GM (1, 1) model is set up, with only a few data (as few as 4), composing forecasting model, providing the important quantificational data for the planning of THIP area economy development. Systematical investigation on the THIP area economy of over ten years of statistic data(1992 —2002) proceed to synthesize the analysis, it makes use of the standpoint, method of the Industry Engineering(IE), pressing in terms of scales, types, founding years and industries, and describes the economic development situation in THIP. The development situation of the different scale enterprises clusters in THIP area economy can demonstrate again the adaptability of the Parlet's "2:8" regulation, and supports the manage ways, " large scale enterprises in grasps, small in promoting", in the base of quantificational data. Therefore, the database can form for simplification of the planning procedure. The development situation of the enterprises clusters in different economic type in THIP area economy shows the process miniatures of economic type change in China, and records the structural variety in economic system in THIP with the history data. The development situation of the enterprises clusters in different founding years in THIP area economy, inquiring into the business enterprise life cycle, tallies up the regulation of business enterprise development "rising rhythm for the first five years and steady period after 10 years". The development situation of the enterprises clusters in different industry in THIP area economy, it is analysis pass to gather a cluster of the scale over ten million, describes the industrial structure and its development tendency in THIP. Passed by over ten years of life, THIP's industries are mainly concentrated on the electronics information technology industry and the advanced manufacturing technology industry, but the new material industry, the bio-pharmacy industry and the green energy industry constituted the special features industry in THIP. In present dissertation, according to the characteristics "the THIP area development experiences only some ten years, the statistic samples is shortage", it adopts Grey Theory and sets up a forecasting model based on the lack data model GM (1, 1). The model describes and studies the dynamic relationship between the systematic capacity and the systematic flow of economic development, and realizes the real extension forecasting with both dynamic variety regulation and practical situation of THIP's economic system. The textual data is time series in the unit of year to collect five economic indexes. With the GM model, it could be used for forecasting. That is an actuality way with the dynamic analysis and outlook. The five GM models of THIP area economic indexes would support the economic development planning of THIP in quantificational basis. The models intend to match the accuracy of the requirements. The thesis also puts forward some principle thinking for the planning of THIP area economy development. The research results are of great importance and practical applications for the forecasting and planning of THIP area economic development.