Construction And Application Of Real Estate Early-warning System In Chongqing

Real estate is an important pillar industry of our national economy. Because of its long industrial chain and Large associated degree, the development of real estate industry is related to the sustained and healthy development of national economy and improvement of people's living standard. Obviously, cycle fluctuation exists in the development of real estate. Although the China's real estate industry started lately, its growth rate is rapid. All the indexes'numerical value in the real estate are increased, and alternating between increase and decrease, growth rate of all the indexes'numerical value showed fluctuated form. Due to high expectations of the housing market, investors increased the investment substantially, which reduces their ability to deal with sudden crises. Therefore, the strengthen risk control is an inevitabe trend for the development of real estate industry.In this paper, author established early-warning systems in the Chongqing property market by referenced to national real estate Housing indexes, through the system to monitor data in Chongqing, which can prevent the occurrence of real estate bubble and avoid the impact of national economy and people live, to promote healthy and stable development of the real estate industry. Firstly, this paper reviewed the basic theory of early-warning indicators system and early-warning method from domestic to international, then analysis of basic knowledge of early-warning to understanding the real estate warning systematic. On this basis, the real estate forecasting mechanism was selected; Secondly, analysis of Chongqing real estate market development in the last three years from the land market supply, sale of commercial housing investment, commercial housing price volatility and comparison of the reasons for the rapid growth rates for house price in 2009; Thirdly, combined with the reality of the real estate market characteristics, the paper selected twenty-four indicators from the land, capital and markets, on this basis, the indicators were screened, and then the remaining indicators have been synthesized for the eight indicators which constituted the early-warning indicator system of real estate. According to the basic process of early-warning system in real estate and comparison with the method of weight, early warning criteria for the classification section, early-warning degree of forecast to determine the most reasonable early-warning model; Finally, the data from 1997 to 2008 of Chongqing were applyed to the empirical analysis, the results showed that the development of the property market in Chongqing was relatively stable, most of them were relatively market in Chongqing was relatively stable, most of them were relatively nomal the housing market was in the expansion phase. The subprime mortgage crisis maked growth rate of Chongqing real estate market slowdown, but in the long run there is the tendency that housing market transformed into partial hot.Based on the empirical analysis, this paper summarized the results of this study, combined with the limitations of this study, the paper proposed a direction of further research.