Research And Application Of Industrial Economic Monitoring And Forecasting Model

With the rapid development of Internet and information technology, economicforecasting model and forecasting system based on Web have been gaining moreand more attention. Economic development has always alternated betweenprosperity and depression, and adoption of early warning models to predicteconomic development has become a research hotspot. Meanwhile, the emergence offorecasting model combining various methods has made traditional models moreprecise and applicable, Accurate prediction model for the governmentmacroscopical and decision-making on economic control has a very importantguiding significance. thus it was widely applied in practice.This dissertation first analyzes the status and trend of the economic earlyforecasting system, and elaborates on principal component analysis, kernelprincipal component analysis, artificial neural network and framework structures,etc.Afterwards, based on the former research and practice, a mixed prosperityforecasting model is proposed, which combines principal component analysis (orkernel principal component analysis), artificial neural network and graphicaldisplay tool (FusionChartsFree). The artificial neural network is applied to predictthe trend of principal economic indicator in combined predicting model. Principalcomponent analysis is used to simplify the input layer of the artificial neuralnetwork model. FusionChartsFree is used for real time display of three-dimensionaldata. The combination of these three models can maximize their respectiveadvantages so as to provide a scientific and effective support to decision makers. Inthe meanwhile, to address the difficulty in determining the threshold of the earlywarning signal system, a comprehensive method of determining the warningthreshold is put forward.In the last part of this dissertation, the proposed prosperity combinedpredicting model is applied to the monitoring and forecasting system of aprefecture-levelcity. This paper describes the main function model and frame modelof the system, and demonstrates the theoretical and practical value of this systemby yearbook data.