A Study On The Pre-warning Of Operational Control Of PRED System In YiChun Forest Region

The object of study on regional sustainable development is regional composite PRED system, which is composed of Population (P), Resources(R), Environment (E) and Development (D). The aim of study on regional sustainable development is to discover the structure, function, dynamic evolution and interaction of the elements of PRED system, and to approach the strategy and controlling measure to assure sustainable development.As to national economy, there are four stages of periodic undulating to PRED system in Yichun: burning coming back to life, prosperous, decline and bleak. In order to keep healthy development of PRED system in Yichun forest region, and give an alarm in time when something unusual happens, we need to establish PRED system in Yichun forest region pre-warming system right away.Modern cybernetics thought and Quality synthetic evaluation technology is applied in the management of economy, Based on the systematic theory, PRED system in Yichun forest region evolution rule and instructed by sustainable development thought, to research pre-warming system of operational control of PRED system in Yichun forest region.This article has summarized the systems science and the quality synthetic evaluation basic theory, has defined its the basic concept of regional fred system,At the same time, through assaying the shortcomings of tradition weight evaluation mode, Proposed the subjective and objective weight appraisal law, that can overcome individual appraisal the subjective factor, In the quantified way of pre-warning system, has given the two different measurement ways from the subjective and objective angles, thus has guaranteed the accuracy of quantitative analysis. Introduced the foundation knowledge on the artificial neural network, expounding its' working principle, the topology structure, studying process and warning principle, to base on the warming model of the pre-warning of operational of PRED system in Yichun forest region.This article is that on the basis of problems of current Yichun forest region sustainable development, analysis of system structure and the evolutional process of system. It is pointed out that pre-warning is control methods of the evolution process, state equations and control pre-warning system was established. This article according to the standards of the science, system, testability, sensibility, the author selected indications reflecting Yichun forest region development, and divided the indication system into four parts such as support ability of economy, society, resource, environment.on this basis, Unifies the BP neural network the early warning function, constructs the Yichun forest region sustainable development the early warning model.This article finally has used the artificial neural network toolbox of Matlab7.0 software; the author compiled the calculation program, Carries on the training to the BP neural network. Has the year target data movement path to Yichun forest region oneself to give the description, combines the unknown year Yichun forest region sustainable development situation to carry on the early warning analysis.