Verification And Validation Of Large-scale Complicated System CA/MAS And Simulation Modeling Of Beijing Population Development

Multi-agent simulation technology is gradually becoming a new method of modeling after traditional mathematic model , because it has particular advantage on the aspect of simulation on complicated system.Many developed countries have accumulated much experience in this field.Since the 1990s,simulation technology based on multi-agent has been widely drawn attention in our homeland and many researches have been carried out.In this paper,a model is built based on multi-agent Swarm platform.In order to match the simulation result of urban population development of Beijing to actual world,an integrating method of macroscopically statistical mechanism and microcosmic interior driving mechanism is used . By regulating and optimizing the model's several random parameters,it realizes that the result which is concluded from the simulation modeling from 2000 to 2005 gradually approaches to the spot-checking data which comes from the real population distribution of Beijing's 18 districts in 2005 in the process of verification and validation.The following contents are discussed:First,simulation modeling of population development is brought forward based on CA/MAS.On the interaction between multi-agent's moving behavior and economic environment of geographical distribution,the simulation model of Beijing population development is built by the methods of CA and MAS tied together.CA means the population geographical distribution and MAS means the moving behavioral rules of urban registered agents and floating agents.Second,the explanations of macroscopical development with microcosmic interior driving mechanism are brought out.Based on the microcosmic factor affecting the population development on macroscopical economy,the resident agents,the behavior of agents and the effect of agents on environment are designed according to the hypothesis of microcosmic rational exception.The macroscopical developments of economy with the hypothesis of microcosmic behavior are carried out.Third,the explanations of macroscopical development of the real world with hypothesis of microcosmic rational exception are carried out by optimizing and validating the model's random parameters.In the process of verification and validation of the simulation modeling by many manual experiments,the data's conformity and space-time degree's conformity are considered.By optimizing the random parameters,the model's validity and compatibility of actual world are tested.It has been proved that the theory and the method of simulation modeling are feasible for a decision-making model which approaches to the actual Beijing population development.