Simulation Research On The Mass Event Based On Multi-Agent

In recent years, the mass event is more frequent than before because of the dramatic changes in various policies and the economic system. It not only disrupted the society orders but also made great harm to the people's lives and property. So it is very important to study the laws of the mass event occurrence and development for the government and the CAPF to deal with events better under different circumstances.At present, the traditional method is to collect raw data by questionnaires and make statistical analysis. It is difficult to make effective analysis and correct conclusion about the mass event occurrence and development by the traditional method, because of the man-made error in collecting data and the lack of data. On the basis of group psychology and multi-agent aptitude technology, the author established a mathematical model of the mass event by the bottom-up approach and had an emulation experiment. The result of analysis showed that this model is credible.Firstly, the paper introduced the mass event and the mass event emulation, and demonstrated that the evolvement of the mass event is a complex adaptive system by the identification of complex adaptive system and the characteristics of the mass event evolvement, and got conclusion that the model could be made for the mass event by research methods of complex adaptive systems. Then, papers focused on the individual model of the mass event by abstract architecture of multi-agent aptitude, formalization description and its various behavioral models. On this basis, this paper proposed a mechanism of the interaction between behavior and psychology in the mass event based on the psychology of groups, and established individual decision-making model in the framework of the above mechanism based on Cellular Automata. Finally, the paper introduced the development process of simulation system and the main model in the simulation system, run simulations under different initial conditions, analyzed the results, and summed up the laws of the mass event evolution under different circumstances on the base of verification of the correctness of the model.By contrast with traditional research methods, the simulation research method of the mass event in this paper is more practical for its solid theoretical basis and more precise conclusions. Therefore, the new approach based on simulation presented in paper is very significance for the government and the CAPF in dealing with the mass event.