Beijing Population Distribution CA/MAS-Based Simulation Model

To match urban population distribution simulation model to actual world, this article builds a model according to the integrating method of macroscopically statistical mechanism and microcosmic interior driving mechanism. By analyzing Beijing population distribution changes in term of microcosmic aspects and macroscopical aspects, we build a Beijing population distribution simulation model based on CA/MAS. Swarm-based on multi-agent simulation platform is chosen as modeling implement platform. Using verification and validation technology, we select best experimental scheme by regulating and optimizing model's several parameters. The simulation result approaches actual population distribution of the 18 districts in Beijing in 2005, in the meantime population distribution data of all districts in 2010 forecasted by simulation model is consistent with official forecasting data. Result proves that the simulation model is feasible for approaching actual Beijing population distribution.The article's main task is as follows:(1)The method combining macroscopically exterior statistic with microcosmic interior driving-force analysis is applied for Cellular Automata /Multi-Agent System model. This method isn't only able to study population distribution changes and future trend from macroscopical aspect ,but also it is able to study each agent's behaviors and their effects on population spatial distribution from microcosmic aspect, furthermore, it advances the theory of model simulating real world .(2)We integrate the modeling method of multi-agent system with cellular automata and build a dynamic model of urban population distribution changes. It is one of the key technologies that simulation model matches the real world .The article shows CA—population geographical distribution and MAS—behavioral rules of urban household agents and floating agents separately, then discusses the interaction between agent behaviors and geographical distribution, thus integrates Beijing population distribution CA/MAS model.(3)To build a kind of mixed model that it opens out common law and approaches actual world, on the basis of considering data conformity and space-time degree conformity, we test model validity and precision by verification and validation technology. The simulation result proves the consistency of micro mechanism and macroscopical eclosion.