Design Of Jinhua Power Grid's Electric Load Forecasting Manager System

Electric load forecasting is one of the most important daily work in power system's despatch and operation, power marketing and power network developing plan, which connects power system's despatch & operation, production plan and power network's strategy. The precision of load prediction directly influences the safety, economicness and power supply's quality. With the establishment and development of power market, load forecasting has become one of the most important contents of modernization management of power system.The text makes a brief introduction on present research conditions, affectors and characteristics of electric load forecasting and makes an analysis on the present conditions of Jinhua Power Grid's load forecasting. It puts forword that it is necessary to eastalish an open and effective short or medium-long term load forecasting system, according to Jinhua Power Grid's development requirements, with the historical load data, economic data from local government and meteorology data from meteorologcial authority, with which to forecast the load value and electricity quantities in a certain coming time or period.In orde to realize the above functions, the text makes a detailed introduction on the requirement analysis, general design, detailed design and realization.In the design and development of load forecasting model, combined with the advanced load forecasting calculation, a load forecasting methods reservoir is eastablished to meet the multi-requirements of load development with as more as possible forecast model. Through this , the predictor can choose the more suitable method to forecast the load accrodingly, make comparison among the forecasting results by different predicting methods, make reasonable comprehensive predictions or analysis and draw the final forecasting result. The prediciton method reservoir can be extended to improve the realiability of the system.