Forecast System For Forest Fire Spread Multi-model

The multi-models forecast system for the forest fire spread acts according to the production rule for the inference principle establishment. Its innovation mainly manifests in: produced the fire spread simple configuration with superpose vector take Wang Zhengfei forest fire spread model as the foundation; Produced the model to changed-length of stride forecast method; produced the multi-models forecast intelligence choice method in view of Wang Zhengfei model and GM(1,1) characteristic; in forecast process, constructing the necessary information with specificity and handy principle for predicting and calculation.Because the forest fire spread is a burning and movement extremely complex phenomenon, which is influenced by heterogeneity, multi-components combustible substance in each kind of meteorological condition and terrain. Therefore the forest fire spread forecast precision is lower. If we want to persists the principle which is "as soon as possible" , it is must enhance the forecast precision of forest fire spread effectively. In existing single model forecast precision is low situation, it is only to use the multi- models forecast method to enhance the forest fire spread the forecast precision.This article marks out the whole structure of the forest fire spread multi-models predict system, and consummate the whole layout. It has used the knowledge base, the global database, the inference, the reasoning machine and the model library circulation working pattern, and through interface realized coordination multi-tasking with the forest fire suppression intelligent decision and support system. The system reasoning machine adopts the production approaching inference rule. Considering the information (including real time data of fire spread, weather, static geometry and calculation), reasoning machine mobilize the modules (including forest spread model, Grey model and forecasting pretreatment models) from the global database for forecasting calculation. Finally System forecasts the forest fire spread tendency by the earth coordinate system coordinates form output.