Study On Holiday Tourism Data Mining And Flux Model

With the persistent increase of the national economy, tourism industry is developing rapidly. Tourism industry is playing a more and more important role in the national economy. Discovering the space-time mode and the transformation rules hiding in the holiday-tourism information and building the flux model on holiday-tourism decision-making have become an important scientific problem in this area.The research work in this dissertation was supported by the Beijing Nature Science Fund (No. 4042012), Science Development Fund of Beijing Educational Committee (No. KZ200510011009), Nature Science Fundation of China (No. 60442003) and Tourism Information Program of the Chinese National Tourism Administration (CNTA). In this dissertation we built the model of the tourism-industry spatial data, mined the tourism spatial data on the basis of the model and built the prediction model of the tourists flux. The main innovation points in this thesis were as follows:(1) Based on the analysis of the holiday-tourism data composing and storage, the spatial data access interface based on predication description was enlarged. We established a spatial data RDBMS model of the holiday-tourism information.(2) Put forth a new data mining algorism which is estimate the frequency item set with the probability estimation, then scaned the database to validate the validity of the frequency item set. We mined the association rules of the tourism spatial information. We educed the spatial association rules described with spatial predication.(3) With the support of the data provided by CNTA, we established a prediction model of the tourists flux and compare the results respectively educed from linear regression, exponential curve and quadric exsmooth model and then predicted the tourists flux in the future.This thesis used the method of data mining and flux model on the basis of former scientific research, discovered the holiday tourism space-time mode and its development rules, found the holiday tourism association rules, established holiday tourism tourists flux model, and propounded the build of holiday tourism decision system. The achievement of this dissertation will help the government to manage and adjust the tourism industry, induct the tourists'consumption, improve the intelligent management level of the holiday-tourism and lastly assist the holiday-tourism develop healthily, orderly and safely.