Research Of Accelerated Testing Data Fusion Modeling Methods And Applications Based On The Consistency Analysis

Accelerated testing (AT) technology have a wide range of applications for the life prediction of equipment with the advantages of short time-consuming, low expenditure and strong power of prediction. But for some complex products, the deviation may exist between the AT and field testing (FT) because the complex mechanism of accelerated testing. So the consistency between AT data and FT data becomes urgent to be studied and it is also an important criteria to the success or not of AT. Aimed at the consistency analysis technology for life prediction of equipments, this dissertation carries on systematically research. Then Bayesian method and MLE method for fusion evaluation are proposed, which provides technical support for storage life assessment of equipments. The main contributions are summarized as follows:(1) Research on the consistency analysis technology between the AT data and the FT data are carried out systematically. The reliability goodness of fit analysis, reliable life opposite error analysis and reliable life cumulative absolute error analysis are proposed, which are used to measure consistency between the AT data and the FT data.(2) Bayesian method for AT fusion evaluation are proposed, which is used to fusion the AT data and several aspects of information from similar product or expert experience. Simulation analysis and examples results turn out that, proposed methods can improve assessment presicion when the sample size is small.(3) MLE method for fusion evaluation is proposed to combine data from AT and FT. Simulation analysis and examples results turn out that, these method can improve the consistency effectively by combining FT data, which is applied in the case of large sample size.(4) The methods of this dissertation for AT data and FT data are applied to the assessment of storage life for the spring in a pilot-operated safety valve, designed and completed the spring stress relaxation AT and FT, which provides an engineering case for the study of AT consistency analysis and data fusion. Results turn out that, the technology of AT consistency analysis is effective for the consistency analysis between AT data and FT data, and the technology of data fusion can effectively combining other information and can obtain an assessment conclusion with high confidence level.In summary, this dissertation carries systematically research on the AT consistency analysis technology and AT data fusion technology through theoretical analysis, simulation analysis and examples. The research results are meaningful for applying the AT to assess the storage life of equipments.