Method Of Simulated Emergency Drill

Stem from no advance warnings, unexpected events——with properties such as sudden, uncertainty, harm, relativity,require unconventional methods to deal with crises which immediately happened.Along with tremendous property loss, the outbreak of unexpected events prevent maturation process of mental health, even cause heavy casualty. Furthermore, unexpected events also have long-term effects, from economy, politics, military, culture, to social stability. Date back to 2005, the State Council issued a "public emergency on the overall implementation of the national contingency plan's decision"(State〔2005〕11), paying great attention to methods of coping emergencies represented by unexpected events.Gannan County——mainly devoted to the implementation of prospering strategy vigorously, such as developing competitive industries to support the strong backbone enterprises, which actively represents as many viewpoints as is both possible and feasible as an approach to accelerate the development of county economy. On a systemic scale emphasis on the approach to dealing with unexpected events may be released to strengthen training and exercise emergency plans would be of great significance.Due to my working experience of Ganna County for years, plus desktop simulated emergency drill is a low cost, repeatable, no risks exercise, all of those contribute to the foundation of this graduation thesis, as a master of software engineering.It is commonly accepted that Bayesian network combines directed acyclic graph with theory of probability. One apt illustration of this point is——as a mechanism, it can display human knowledge naturally and intuitively; another subtle explanation rests on the fact that the statistical data can also be the conditional probability form into the model. Bayesian networks can be a seamless integration of human priori knowledge and posterior data, to overcome the shortcomings of the semantic network model, which can deal with the weaknesses of quantitative information and neural networks method.Advance warning of emergency, which analyze the possibility and main reason of unexpected events as well as pre-judge hazard class, play pivotal roles in emergencies. An advance warning analysis is proposed below to determine a better way to illustrate the case.Both from water level of reservoir as well as fire alarm systems could trigger warning system, which installed inside the command center. There are two alarm points can be observed in the water level and fire situation, and may call the police command center. Bayesian network can be simulated the probability of fire, flood and other emergencies' alarming.Timely warning as well as effective communication and command sharply lead to predominance to emergency response. If the working communications facilities work well, the commander can telephone subordinates step by step; if the telecommunications utility interruptions, we must communicate through staff face to face, because direct communication will face situations like traffic congestion and staff separation. No matter what kind of unexpected events, each may constitute very different way of communication links, so that accurate and timely communication links are essential.Police respond to emergencies and communications activities are verisilimilar to multicast routing in computer networks. The so-called multicast is to send information from the source to a group of recipients on the network, to achieve multipoint or multipoint communications. Compared with unicast, multicast network needs to transmit the least mount of copied information, so that it can save network resources. The key point is to select high efficiency, low-cost multicast routing.Obviously, the contingency plan provided for members form a multicast group, the alarm or emergency commander is a multicast source. Emergency response process always come across special circumstances, some members may be temporarily lost contact, some of communication lines, roads or bridges got interrupted or blocked, etc., and dynamic multicast routing problem is similar to the above factors, they can be constrained and descripted by multicast QoS.Designed simulation programs which respond to emergencies involves two aspects, one is to use GIS technology and simulation technology to build multicast routing simulation exercise environment, the second is the use of Bayesian networks and stochastic network technology to control and restrain the progress of event and emergency situation.GIS have the capability of acquisition, storage, editing, processing, analysis and display of spatial data. It can describe the simulated floods, fires, war and other natural and man-made disasters, analysis, and arrange evacuation routes, provide transportation and material support. What's more, it also can create the distribution of urban underground pipe network infrastructure diagram, mark the geographical reference to the facilities characteristics, forming a computer model of underground pipe network to deal with emergencies like underground pipeline burst; we can facilitate police service as well as medical care by establishing transportation network.Based on the actual situation in Gannan County as well as the emergency response simulation's actual demand, I adopted a related electronic map by Mapinfo and marked out its property, besides, adopting ActiveX controls to better achieved with the application link technically. So that, forming the simulation exercises under GIS program modules.Adopting Waxman random network simulation model to cope with emergency response, we can describe process like communication network, road transport network as well as contacting emergency personnel. Supporting by underlying Multicast routing algorithm for randomly generated network topology can be more conducive to training and developing emergency response organizations of commanders and all members.