Rationed Research On Group Thought

Expert opinion impacted by the subjective conditions and objective conditions.So expert opinion is regard as random variable,awinging at expectations.This paper proved that when the much number of experts from the same distribution,groups thought have convergence;when limited number of experts from the same distribution,given error~δ,confidence level 1-αgive a definition of consensus; and calculated the least number of experts under the model; when expert opinion from the different distribution,give the calculated and decision-making flow about variable consensus degree on expert opinion;peer review in the above results, non-consensus recognition and measurement.